Ping An View:
Hong Kong stocks fell slightly last week, and global stock markets rose and fell. Last week, the global stock market showed obvious differentiation, with developed countries falling as a whole and emerging countries rising as a whole. In developed markets, NASDAQ and Nikkei 225 are the weakest, while European stock indexes are relatively strong; Emerging market stock indexes performed well, while Hong Kong stock market represented by Hang Seng Index performed weakly, with weekly rise and fall of - 1.3%, ranking behind major global stock indexes.
The whole industry rose less and fell more, led by energy and industry. Last week, most sectors of Hong Kong stocks fell, and only energy, industry and finance closed up; Information technology, medical security, raw materials, real estate and construction performed the weakest, with weekly increases and decreases of less than - 2.0%; Essential and non essential consumption also ended down. Dragged down by heavyweight sectors such as information technology, medical security, real estate construction and consumption, the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks was weak.
American strong employment is now low non-agricultural, and the monetary contraction trend has been obvious. The US November non farm payrolls data were released on the evening of December 3, Beijing time. Although the number of new non farm payrolls was only 210000, significantly lower than the market expected level of 550000, this does not explain the weakness of the US job market, because the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.2%, significantly lower than the market expected 4.5%, U6 unemployment rate also fell to 7.8%, and the labor force participation rate also rose to 61.8%, All this shows the high prosperity of the US job market. Considering the tight job market and persistently high inflation in the United States, as well as the possibility that the successive emergence of mutant strains and the epidemic caused by them will further push up inflation, the current taper of the Federal Reserve is likely to speed up at the December meeting. At present, the monetary contraction trend of the Federal Reserve has been revealed. Once inflation continues to be high for more than half a year in 2022, interest rate hikes will follow.
Didi delisting attracted attention, and zhonggai shares panicked or impacted Hong Kong stocks. On the evening of December 3, Didi's official website announced that after "delisting the company's ads from the New York Stock Exchange and ensuring that ads holders can freely convert the company's shares on another internationally recognized Stock Exchange", Didi's share price began to fall sharply. In addition, the supporting rules for the new regulations on the supervision of foreign listed companies released by the US Securities Regulatory Commission have increased the concerns about the delisting of Zhongyu shares, So as to drive the overall significant downward trend of China concept stocks. For the Hong Kong stock market, the panic selling tide of China concept stocks will have a negative impact on the information technology sector of Hong Kong stocks in the short term. Because Hong Kong stocks and the US stock market are closely linked or even converge in the valuation system, the sharp decline of China concept stocks in US stocks on the evening of the 3rd will spread to Hong Kong stocks at the beginning of next week. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, once a large number of zhonggai shares are delisted from US stocks and listed in Hong Kong stocks, it will bring more high-quality assets to the Hong Kong stock market and more opportunities to the Hong Kong stock market and investors.
The end of Internet policy still needs to wait, focusing on industrial manufacturing and consumption. The recent weak performance of Hong Kong stocks and the Hang Seng index are also in the process of grinding the bottom, which is also a difficult test for investors. Based on the present, the current "bottom seeking road" of Hong Kong stocks is still on the way. However, the near net breaking Hang Seng Index also shows that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the bottom. We suggest that, in the short term, high-end industrial manufacturing with promising prosperity, consumption of necessities with the ability to raise prices and consumption of pleasing oneself with high cost performance are all areas that can be paid attention to.
Risk tips: 1) covid-19 epidemic further increases the impact; 2) The global fiscal stimulus is less than expected or the monetary tightening is faster than expected; 3) Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected; 4) Overseas market volatility intensified.
