On February 28, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the press conference of the state information office that this year, we should focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of China's lithium resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices. At the same time, we will improve the recycling system of power batteries, support technical breakthroughs such as efficient disassembly and recycling, and constantly improve the recycling rate and resource utilization efficiency.
"A 100 billion yuan track has been opened." Ding Bingzhong, an asset partner of the 1898 movement and doctor of finance of Xi'an Jiaotong University, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that with the popularity of new energy vehicles, the recovery and treatment of lithium batteries has become extremely urgent, "In the context of the continuous upward loading of power batteries, the batteries of new energy vehicles that have been sold will be gradually scrapped, and the decommissioning of batteries may form a large scale in the future.".
billion yuan market opened
According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the annual sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles increased from 507000 in 2016 to 1367000 in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 28%. Last year, the production and sales reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years, and the cumulative promotion volume has exceeded 9 million.
"With the advent of the era of new energy vehicles, how to deal with a large number of batteries retired from cars is a problem to be faced." Ding Bingzhong said.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) research report points out that the positive electrode of power battery contains heavy metals, and improper recovery will lead to the infiltration of heavy metals into the soil; The components of electrolyte or their conversion products, such as liasf6, DME, methanol and formic acid, are toxic and harmful substances, and some substances are highly corrosive.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that power battery recycling is a necessary process under the current general trend of environmental protection, and recycling is imperative.
In Ding Bingzhong's view, this is not just an environmental issue. "In the context of the rising price of lithium battery raw materials, the recycling of retired power batteries has attracted more and more attention."
The government also released this signal. February 28 is the third time that the Ministry of industry and information technology and other ministries and commissions have mentioned power battery recycling this year.
It is understood that Ni MH batteries contain 35% nickel, 4% cobalt, 1% manganese and 8% rare earth elements, lithium iron phosphate batteries contain 1% lithium, and ternary batteries contain 12% nickel, 5% cobalt, 7% manganese and 1% lithium.
Li Yuke, senior engineer of China Automotive Technology Research Center, mentioned in a research report on power battery recycling that the service life of new energy passenger vehicles is 4-6 years. Assuming that the decommissioning life of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery is 5 years, 252000 tons of power battery will be decommissioned in 2021, and it will increase to 2373 million tons by 2030, corresponding to a market space of 107.43 billion yuan.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) it is also estimated that the battery recycling market space will reach 108.9 billion yuan in 2030, of which power batteries account for 84%. A market of hundreds of billions has been opened.
enterprise beach layout
At present, the decommissioned electric vehicle batteries in the market mainly include "Echelon utilization" and "disassembly and recycling".
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) research report points out that in recent years, China's requirements on recovery rate have been gradually strict, and relatively perfect recovery rate regulations have been formed so far. Among them, the metal recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese is required to reach 98%, the recovery rate of lithium is also increased from no requirement in 2016 to no less than 85% in 2018, and the comprehensive recovery rate of rare earth and other major valuable metals is no less than 97%.
Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) in the investment interactive platform, it was revealed that the process of recovering cobalt, manganese and nickel in the industry is relatively mature, and the average recovery rate can exceed 90%.
"With the continuous improvement of the price of lithium battery raw materials, the previous lithium nickel ore with deviation in mining and utilization conditions also has a certain development value, including the value of cascade utilization of lithium battery, disassembly, recycling and reuse, and the price system of 'waste' utilization also has a certain market-oriented realization path." Qi Haizhen, President of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) research report believes that the high-frequency release of power battery recycling policy in recent two years, the continuous introduction of industry standards and the continuous improvement of standardization provide guarantee for the release of market space in the industry.
Among A-share listed companies, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC lithium battery, Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , tiandynamism, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and other enterprises have been laying out power battery recycling.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) optimistic about four types of enterprises, including automobile companies with maintenance channels, power exchange companies with circulation channels, automobile disassembly companies with disassembly channels, and non-ferrous enterprises that have reached cooperation with battery factories. If the supporting battery recycling production line is improved, these manufacturers will become the main players in the early stage of development.
"The next step is to continuously improve the technology to reduce the cost and the level of comprehensive utilization of resources, so as to maximize the utilization of resources." Qi Haiyu said.
