Market view: loose again, support the cross year market
PMI data indicates that the probability of “weak stabilization” of the economy increases, risk appetite improves steadily, the expected landing of RRR reduction releases the preview signal of cross cycle adjustment, the word “stability” of monetary policy is superimposed with “timely RRR reduction”, the real estate financing end is relaxed and the liquidity is more optimistic than that in the early stage. The layout of the cross year market can be more active. At the level of industry configuration, the main line of growth and structural opportunities of consumption and finance can be arranged, and the theme investment opportunities of military industry + digital currency can be paid attention to.
In terms of growth, PMI indicates an increase in the probability of “weak stabilization” of the economy. In November, the comprehensive PMI was 52.2, 1.4 percentage points higher than that in October, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and returning to the expansion range. The production of enterprises has resumed, China’s consumer demand has warmed up towards the end of the year, and the export volume is expected to rise further at the end of the year. In terms of enterprise cost, the effect of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” continues to appear. Although the recovery of the service industry is subject to the epidemic, under the policy of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, China’s production side has accelerated recovery, China’s foreign demand is still resilient, and the economy is expected to achieve weak stabilization in December. The liquidity level is more optimistic than that in the early stage. In terms of monetary policy, the word “stability” is superimposed with “timely RRR reduction”, and there is no worry about liquidity. The issuance of local government bonds is nearing the end, the capital pressure is relieved compared with the previous period, the disturbance to the interest rate is reduced, and the subsequent interest rate is expected to fall slightly. In terms of credit risk, after Evergrande’s default announcement, the regulators made a voice immediately, with obvious intention to stabilize expectations; The real estate financing side has been relaxed, the credit situation has improved, and the liquidity is optimistic as a whole.
Risk appetite improved steadily. On the eve of the important meeting, the expected reduction of reserve requirement was implemented, releasing the signal that the cross cycle regulation policy began to rehearse. In the near future, we need to pay attention to the convening of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference, and give a clearer tone and arrangement for the economic policy in 2022. The “growth pressure” is expected to become the key word and the main tone of the policy. The sensitivity of superimposed A-Shares to Evergrande default risk events has been passivated and will not have an impact on market risk appetite under the background of controllable risk.
Industry configuration: loose recovery, strong growth, continued support, and finance deserves attention
The expectation of steady growth is stronger, more actively participate in the cross year market and lay out the main line of growth. Although the performance of infrastructure chain ranked first in the first week of December and the growth plate fluctuated, it showed the characteristics of strong Shanghai Stock Exchange and weak gem. However, we believe that at a time when the signal of steady growth is increasing, we still adhere to a more active strategy. First, on December 3, Premier Li Keqiang again proposed to reduce the reserve requirement in due time, increase support for small and micro enterprises, further strengthen liquidity expectations and provide valuation support; Second, the central economic work conference will be held in mid December, and the policy expectation of steady growth will be further strengthened at that time. Therefore, the node at the end of the year needs to more actively participate in the cross year market and seize the opportunity of agitation in the first half of the year. In terms of allocation opportunities, first, the growth direction is to allocate the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and semiconductors, in which it is necessary to tap the opportunities of industrial chain segmentation, such as the improvement of the profitability of photovoltaic middle and downstream components; Second, the direction of consumption, structural opportunities, focus on cars that have improved along the boom and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that have benefited from the rebound in prices; Third, the financial direction. With the restlessness moving forward in spring, we can pay attention to the startup opportunities of securities companies.
In terms of theme, focus on the theme investment opportunities of military industry + digital currency. The military industry is in a high business cycle, including the upgrading of communication equipment driven by the increase of military expenditure, and the change of industry pricing mechanism and payment mechanism, resulting in the improvement of the profitability of the military industry. Digital currency is accelerating the implementation of technology, enriching application scenarios and catalyzing the Winter Olympic Games, ushering in theme investment opportunities.
Risk statement
Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations; Policy tightening exceeded expectations; The omricon epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations.
