A shares ushered in the first trading day of March today, and the three major indexes collectively closed up. Among them, the Shanghai index rose 0.77% to close at 348883 points, rising for three consecutive days on the daily line; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.24% to close at 1348864 points; The gem index rose 0.16% to close at 288579. The market turnover reached 969.1 billion yuan, and the industry sector rose more or fell less. Wine making, pork, chicken, tourism, education and coal sectors led the rise, while energy metals and precious metals led the decline.
Today’s news:
1. Germany plans to accelerate the development of new energy: four main lines layout photovoltaic sector
2. People’s Daily: implement the project of “counting from the east to the west” to create a network of computing power
3. Duan Yongping will do it again! III. self purchase of asset management of securities companies! More obvious bottom reading signal?
4. Exposure of gold stocks in March: securities companies are generally optimistic about “steady growth”, and the growth sector is expected to rebound (list)
5. Bureau of Statistics: the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%
6. Exposure of invisible heavy positions of top flow fund managers! Cui Chenlong sticks to the latest positions of new energy, such as Fu Pengbo and Linsen
7. Head fund companies are starting to rush to issue! 38 new basic weekly development funds have stated that 10 million follow-up investment
8. The first collection and storage of this year will start the rebound of pig price, and the institutions will focus on the release of concept stocks
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significantly affected investors’ risk appetite in the short term, but we think this impact will gradually dissipate. Now is a good time to layout the market in spring. Historical data show that the impact of regional conflict on the stock market is relatively short. With reference to 14 years, the impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the stock market may gradually disappear. The market fell at the beginning of the year due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the disturbance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States. The disturbance dissipated, and the spring market with steady growth was just at that time. The market style is moving from value led to growth led, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that there are many variables in the follow-up of the Russian Ukrainian conflict and NATO sanctions, but the market is still in a favorable window period. With the approaching of the two sessions, the stable growth of the infrastructure chain has begun to be realized gradually. Subsequently, with the cooling of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in March and the decline of the yield of China’s long-end treasury bonds, the environment of the growth sector has improved, and it is optimistic about the high prosperity power semiconductors Photovoltaic, CXO with expected marginal improvement, etc., while paying attention to the aluminum and crude oil chain benefiting from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, thermal power benefiting from the downward coal price, digital economy supported by policies, etc. In the medium term, A-Shares will still face four major challenges: the downward pressure on performance brought by the economic bottoming period, the rhythm and intensity of policies, the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve, and the China policy of the US mid-term election year. Take the lead in configuration: grasp the “three low and one change” (low undervalued value and low congestion, with fundamental marginal improvement expectation), high dividend as bottom position, countercyclical upward industry as the main force, and low configuration industry as the theme of marginal improvement.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market ushered in phased repair. At present, as the market’s panic about the Fed’s interest rate hike has eased, the transaction congestion has dropped to an all-time low, the main funds have returned and increased their positions in advance, the incremental funds of ETF have continued to flow in, and the sectors such as medicine and the “new half army” have led the periodic repair of the market. The probability of “reversal” in the short-term observation window is still small, but it is still “V” in March. 1. The Fed raised interest rates and the trend of US bond interest rates. 2. On the Chinese side, the two sessions will also be held on March 4. 3. In the middle and late March, on the one hand, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the prospect of the first quarterly report, will be released one after another. On the other hand, China’s economic and financial data from January to February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of “steady growth” in the early stage and predict the rhythm and strength of follow-up policies. 4. The progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the price trend of bulk commodities such as oil prices.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that due to geographical emergencies, investors’ risk appetite decreased, resulting in increased global asset volatility. Given that China has a complete industrial chain and little inflation pressure in China, RMB assets have been given the attribute of risk aversion. It is expected that the disturbance of overseas risk events to the A-share market is relatively short. The following two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period; In addition, A-share enterprises have successively entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report, and the sectors with high profit growth and business reversal will become the main line. In terms of allocation, there are three main investment lines: first, the allocation varieties of “stable growth” policy, such as “bank, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “, etc. expected to benefit from price increase (price increase); Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support), “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, East West calculation, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that the core feature of the recent market is that the style is heavy and the main line is unclear. With the commencement and resumption of production in the peak season approaching, the landing effect of stable growth in the early stage is about to usher in an important observation period. The next 1-2 months will be an important decision-making window for a shares. We will deduce two scenarios of the medium-term trend of the market. Resume the capital market performance during the four typical geographical conflicts since the 21st century, and the local war is not a variable to determine the market trend. Moreover, in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, foreign capital only flowed out slightly, and the RMB reached a new high since mid-2018. Therefore, even if the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, it will not have a greater negative impact on a shares. From a short-term perspective, between now and the two sessions, it is in a window period with good odds and odds. The market in the lunar year is expected to continue. The trading bottom of the high boom track may have appeared, and the style probability is balanced; However, in the medium-term dimension, the trend of accelerating the entry of incremental funds into the market and the downward trend of global interest rates has shifted, and the simple boom chasing strategy may fail. As far as the current situation is concerned, we are still in the macro combination of weak economy and low credit. The further trend in the future needs to wait for subsequent decisions. However, in any case, it is necessary to increase the allocation of relatively low positions and undervalued sectors.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the A-share market is not able to take action on the whole, or will continue to fluctuate under the background of lower profits driven by China’s economic downturn and increased overseas uncertainty. The recovery of market sentiment on Friday was partly boosted by the news that “Russia and Ukraine are expected to negotiate”. However, at present, the negotiations have miscarried again, the sanctions have started, the overseas epidemic is still erupting, and the Chinese epidemic is resurgent. The overall market sentiment may be impacted again, especially the sanctions on international settlement may affect the trade settlement of China’s import and export to Russia, In order to impact the business development and capital flow of China’s import and export enterprises, we must be vigilant against the resulting impact and risks. At the same time, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Structural opportunities still exist. It is suggested to focus on the bottom opportunities in the adjustment in combination with the macro policy trend, industrial logic, defense capability, valuation level of different style sectors and expected repair logic. At the same time, it is again emphasized to closely follow the marginal changes of overseas situation and remain relatively cautious.
