Key investment points:
Weekly highlights review
(1) The prime minister mentioned the “timely reduction of the reserve requirement”; (2) the Guangdong provincial government sent a working group to Evergrande real estate; (3) didi trip: starting the delisting on the New York Stock Exchange and the preparation for listing in Hong Kong from now on; (4) Bitcoin once fell by about 20% over the weekend; (5) PMI rebounded 0.9 points to 50.1 in November.
Market performance review
Exchange rate: the risk aversion is heating up, the risk aversion currency is stronger, and the trend of RMB is strong;
Stock market: global stock indexes rose and fell. Affected by weak economic data and the spread of Omicron virus, all three major stock indexes in the United States fell; A-Shares are relatively bright, with significant plate differentiation and relatively backward consumption. In terms of style, the undervalued + small market value style is relatively successful. Bond market: last week, the overall capital was loose. Shibor’s overnight and weekly interest rates fell. Last week, the yield of 10-year US bonds fell from 1.52% to 1.35%, while the yield of China’s 10-year Treasury bonds rose from 2.83 to 2.87%. The interest rate difference between the two countries further widened and pushed the RMB exchange rate stronger.
Industry boom tracking:
Upstream: Energy: crude oil prices fell, coal prices stabilized, and silicon wafer prices fell; Non ferrous metals: base metals and precious metals fell; Rare earth and lithium carbonate continued to rise;
Middle reaches: ferrous metals: prices stabilized and operating rates decreased; Chemical industry was mixed, and pulp prices were strong
Rising, cement weakening and glass price rising; The price of dry bulk cargo has picked up again;
Downstream: automobile, core shortage mitigation, parts meet structural opportunities; Real estate, fundamentals weakened, but policy margin improved; Textile and clothing, canadian goose event or promote the acceleration of Guochao brand substitution; Food and beverage: the price rise of mass consumer goods continues; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fishery: pig prices fell in the short term; TMT: supply and demand mismatch, and the price of memory chips will rise again.
Strategic Outlook:
After the rapid decline in the early stage, the decline of some upstream cyclical products such as coal and steel slowed down, but the prices of most products such as crude oil, copper, precious metals and cement are still weak, which also reflects the pattern of weak downstream demand. At present, with weak fundamentals and loose liquidity, we believe that the improvement of valuation may still be the main line. We suggest paying attention to the following opportunities: first, the valuation repair opportunities for financial sectors such as non banks and banks; Second, growth sectors benefiting from valuation switching at the end of the year, such as national defense and military industry, semiconductor and computer sectors; Third, structural opportunities under the low-carbon main line, such as energy infrastructure and green power operation benefiting from the decline in silicon wafer prices; In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of some price rising industries, such as papermaking and some consumer goods.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, and the economic recovery is less than expected.
