Key investment points:
Key points:
1. In the nine restless spring markets since 2011, there have been obvious style switching in five times and continued the previous market main line in four times. The changes in economic fundamentals and policy tone, as well as the relative position of the market before the market, determine whether there will be style switching in spring. The central economic work conference at the end of the previous year is an important observation window.
2. Among the five spring agitations with style switching, 2011 and 2017 were in the middle and late stage of the bull market, and the policy showed signs of tightening under the background of maintaining strong economic momentum. After periodic correction, the dominant style of spring agitation returned to the main line of the bull market from the relatively anti falling finance. 2012, 2016 and 2019 are in the middle and late stage of the bear market. After the policy releases the more than expected easing signal, the essence of the restlessness in spring is the oversold rebound.
3. The continuation of the policy tone of the central economic work conference and the stable operation of the early market determine that there is no style switching in the spring agitation in 2018, 2020 and early 2021. Only the spring agitation in early 2013 was slightly different. Finance was relatively dominant in the bear market in 2012. Subsequently, finance led the market again under the opening of a new round of real estate cycle.
4. “Timely RRR reduction” has opened up a further loose upward space. The market’s expectation of increasing and stable growth of the central economic work conference has been continuously strengthened. There is a great possibility that the agitation will be brought forward to the cross year market next spring. The market space depends on the strength of policies. However, considering that the policy tone has not changed in direction and the market has not experienced a major correction in the early stage, there is little possibility of style switching in the spring of 2022, which still needs to be laid out in consumption and growth.
5. In terms of configuration, the cross year market proposal focuses on two main lines: one is the convergence of ppi-cpi scissors, focusing on cars and household appliances benefiting from the downward PPI and food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology benefiting from the upward CPI. Second, continue to pay attention to the new energy chain with high prosperity and high growth, including photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, etc.
Summary:
1. In the nine restless spring markets since 2011, there have been obvious style switching in five times and continued the previous market main line in four times. The changes in economic fundamentals and policy tone, as well as the relative position of the market before the market, determine whether there will be style switching in spring. The central economic work conference at the end of the previous year is an important observation window. Since 2011, except that there was no spring agitation in the market at the beginning of 2014 and the market ushered in a general rise at the beginning of 2015, there has been spring agitation in the first quarter of the other nine years, and the market in some years will be opened in December of the previous year. Among the 9 spring agitations since 2011, 5 spring agitations had style switching compared with the previous ones, which occurred in 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017 and early 2019 respectively. Four times without switching occurred in 2013, 2018, 2020 and early 2021 respectively. From the point of view of the key driving factors determining whether there will be style switching in spring agitation, one is the change of economic fundamentals and policy tone. The space of spring agitation market depends on the strength of policies. The central economic work conference at the end of the previous year is an important observation window. When policies are more relaxed or moderately tightened than expected, market styles tend to switch. Second, the relative position of the market before the spring restless market. If the market before the market does not encounter a significant correction, the probability of spring restlessness will continue and strengthen the main line of previous market transactions. However, if there is a phased adjustment or even a long-term bear market, the essence of spring restlessness is oversold rebound.
2. Among the five spring agitations with style switching, 2011 and 2017 were in the middle and late stage of the bull market, and the policy showed signs of tightening under the background of maintaining strong economic momentum. After periodic correction, the dominant style of spring agitation returned to the main line of the bull market from the relatively anti falling finance. 2012, 2016 and 2019 are in the middle and late stage of the bear market. After the policy releases the more than expected easing signal, the essence of the restlessness in spring is the oversold rebound. In 2011 and early 2017, the market was in the middle and late stage of the bull market, and the momentum of economic growth at the macro level was relatively strong. Under the “social dance” trend of the economy and policy as a whole, the policy showed signs of tightening. On the other hand, in the past two years, the restless market in spring has experienced a phased correction, and the financial style has been relatively resistant to decline in this period. After the restless market in spring, the dominant style of the market has returned from finance to the main line of the previous bull market. 2011 is the cycle, while 2017 is consumption. The long time downtown pressure on the economy was higher in 2012, 2016 and early 2019. On the one hand, the downward pressure on the economy was greater. At the end of the year, the central economic work conference released a strong easing signal. On the other hand, the market adjusted sufficiently after a long time of decline, and only needed a certain policy signal to catalyze the market. Therefore, after the policy releases the more than expected easing signal, the essence of restlessness in spring is the oversold rebound, and the leading style is often the most obvious adjustment range in the early stage.
3. The continuation of the policy tone of the central economic work conference and the stable operation of the early market determine that there is no style switching in the spring agitation in 2018, 2020 and early 2021. Only the spring agitation in early 2013 was slightly different. Finance was relatively dominant in the bear market in 2012. Subsequently, finance led the market again under the opening of a new round of real estate cycle. Among the nine spring restless markets, four continued the previous market main line, namely the spring restlessness in 2013, 2018, 2020 and early 2021. Specifically, the economy is in the middle and late stage of recovery in 2018 and early 2021, and the market has always been worried about further tightening the policy. However, the central economic work conference at the end of 2017 did not further overweight the financial deleveraging and strict supervision policy, while the central economic work conference at the end of 2020 directly defined the policy “no sharp turn”, The continuation of the policy tone determines that the direction and main line of market operation will not change. The beginning of 2020 is at the initial stage of economic recovery, and the policy has maintained a loose tone since the second half of 2019. The central economic work conference at the end of the year is also a continuation, not a turn. In addition, the market at the beginning of 2018, 2020 and 2021 did not encounter obvious negative impact, and the market continued the upward trend of shock before the spring agitation. The continuation of the policy tone of the central economic work conference and the stable operation of the early market determined that there was no style switching in the spring agitation at the beginning of 2018, 2020 and 2021. Only the spring agitation in early 2013 was slightly different. In the bear market environment in 2012, finance dominated the whole year. Subsequently, with the opening of a new round of real estate cycle, finance led the rise again. The spring agitation in early 2013 did not change the market style.
4. “Timely RRR reduction” has opened up a further loose upward space. The market’s expectation of increasing and stable growth of the central economic work conference has been continuously strengthened. There is a great possibility that the agitation will be brought forward to the cross year market next spring. The market space depends on the strength of policies. However, considering that the policy tone has not changed in direction and the market has not experienced a major correction in the early stage, there is little possibility of style switching in the spring of 2022, which still needs to be laid out in consumption and growth. Since the middle and late November, the market’s expectation of policy strengthening and stable growth has been continuously strengthened. On the one hand, Premier Li Keqiang once again proposed “timely RRR reduction” on December 3. Facing the downward pressure of the economy, there is a need and space for RRR reduction in China. On the other hand, the central economic work conference will be held in mid December. With the easing of high inflation constraints after the confirmation of the downward trend of PPI and the superposition of the Fed’s interest rate increase cycle, there is an opportunity for monetary policy easing in China. Under the background that the steady growth policy is expected to be further overweight, there is a great possibility that the agitation will advance to the cross year market next spring, and the upward space depends on the easing of the policy. However, considering that the policy has been stable and loose since August, and the signals of wide money and credit have been confirmed for many times, the subsequent easing policy does not change the direction of policy operation. Since the second half of the year, the market has not experienced a significant correction, which is basically in the upper middle position, and there is no obvious opportunity for oversold rebound, It is estimated that there is little possibility of style switching in the spring of 2022, and it is still necessary to find investment opportunities in consumption and growth. In terms of configuration, the cross year market proposal focuses on two main lines: one is the convergence of ppi-cpi scissors, focusing on cars and household appliances benefiting from the downward PPI and food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology benefiting from the upward CPI. Second, continue to pay attention to the new energy chain with high prosperity and high growth, including photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, etc.
Risk tip: liquidity tightening is higher than expected, economic stall is downward, Sino US friction is intensified, and the epidemic situation is worse than expected.
