Market review: the index rose and fell, led by the leisure service sector
Today, the two cities rose and then fell. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.50% to 3589.31 and the Shenzhen index fell 0.93% to 14752.96. In terms of sectors, leisure services, building materials and household appliances led the increase, while electrical equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, led the comprehensive decline. The turnover of the two cities was 1203.61 billion yuan, an increase of 6.02% over the previous trading day and 3.14% over the average of the previous five days. The net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was RMB 2.123 billion, the net sales of Shenzhen Stock connect was RMB 1.728 billion, and the net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was RMB 395 million.
Market focus:
On 6 December, The 2022 economic Blue Book (economic Blue Book: analysis and forecast of China’s economic situation in 2022) prepared by the research group of the Academy of Social Sciences was published at the “2022 economic blue book press conference and China’s economic situation report meeting” Published on. According to the blue book, considering that the global epidemic continues, China’s economy is expected to grow by about 5.3% in 2022, with an average growth rate of 5.2% in the three years from 2020 to 2022, slightly higher than the average growth rate in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
Strategy suggestion: it is recommended to pay attention to the non bank sector
Today, the structural market of A-Shares continued, and the Shanghai index rose sharply in the morning, once rising by more than 0.5%. In the afternoon, it accelerated the downward exploration, the transaction volume was large again, and the transaction remained active. Under the influence of the high base and the global epidemic, the market generally believes that China’s economic growth in 2022 will gradually fall back to about 5.1%. At present, the previous “stagflation” pattern began to show marginal changes, the upstream prices were controlled and gradually fell, the downstream products raised prices one after another, and the scissors gap between PPI and CPI is expected to gradually narrow, driving the redistribution of profits in the industrial chain. In this process, high-end midstream manufacturing industries with strong demand side support and high policy prosperity, such as digital infrastructure, network security equipment, high-energy efficiency motors and other concept sectors, may have strong development prospects and are expected to continue to improve. Meanwhile, the consumer segment driven by the peak demand season at the end of the year is expected to usher in a new year’s market. It is suggested to compare the upward revision potential of different stock targets in combination with the valuation level, performance certainty and demand elasticity of specific segments. In addition, the downward pressure on the economy has slowed down, but the easing of policy at the end of the year is more and more expected. The re fermentation of overseas epidemic may form a certain support for China’s exports, but this support is expected to be relatively limited. Overseas countries have limited ability to use policy tools to strongly boost China’s consumption. Since the outbreak, the anti risk ability of supply chains of various countries has also improved to a certain extent. At the same time, under the pressure of high global inflation, the tightening rhythm of policies of major central banks, especially the Federal reserve, is difficult to change. Recently, signals such as “timely RRR reduction” and “structural monetary tools” have emerged one after another. China’s policy is gradually easing, which is still expected to boost the A-share market.
After the intensive release of multiple market signals this weekend, the non bank and real estate sectors continued to build well today, and the central bank officially announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, which is in line with our previous expectations. It is suggested to pay attention to the non bank sector with historically low valuation and basically good orientation.
