In late February, the Russian Ukrainian war broke out and Russian troops invaded Ukraine. We expect the war to end soon, but economic sanctions may last for a long time, and the impact on financial markets is difficult to eliminate quickly.
The prices of commodities such as gold and crude oil may change the original track. Although both will fall in the medium term, both may continue to rise in the short term due to war factors. Copper, A-share and treasury bond interest rates may not be affected, and China’s economic fundamentals still play a leading role.
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) major asset allocation index is a macro allocation index constructed with gold, crude oil, copper, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and ten-year Treasury bonds as assets. Asset allocation is carried out according to the trend prediction of these types of assets. There was a significant retreat in the rate of return in February, and the index returned to 102.63 The allocation strategy changed in March. The new portfolio is 10% long in crude oil, 10% short in copper, 40% short in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 40% long in 10-year Treasury bonds.
Risk tip: the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightened monetary policy; Uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine; Covid-19 virus broke out again in the world; Credit events broke out in a centralized manner.
