According to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, february 21-25 week, the national average pig grain price ratio was 4.98 ∶ 1 , which entered the level I early warning range of excessive decline determined in the plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring supply and price stability in the pork market the national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will immediately start the collection and storage of the central frozen pork reserve and guide all localities to actively collect and store according to the preliminary statistics and summary, at present, Beijing, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia and other places have started the collection and storage, and other places will also start in the near future.
In the next step, the national development and Reform Commission will continue to work with relevant departments to regulate reserves, further strengthen the collection and storage when necessary, and promote the smooth operation of the pig market. It is suggested that farms (households) reasonably arrange production and operation decisions to maintain the overall stability of pig production capacity and the normal rhythm of slaughter and supplement.
According to huachu.com, 2022, the first batch of bidding transactions for the purchase and storage of frozen pork in the central reserve totaled 40000 tons, which were held on March 3 and March 4, 2022 respectively
In view of the excessive fluctuation of pork in a short time, the State Council recently issued the "14th five year plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization", which emphasizes that we should improve the long-term mechanism for the stable and orderly development of the pig industry, promote standardized large-scale breeding, stabilize the pork production capacity at about 55 million tons, and prevent the ups and downs of production.
the price of pork is expected to rebound slightly after the start of purchasing and storage
Since July 2020, pork prices have entered the callback mode. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, on February 28, the average price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market was 18.54 yuan / kg, down 0.5% from last Friday and 52.56% from the same period last year. At present, the latest price of has been close to the low point in October last year
Historical experience shows that after the start of pork purchase and storage, the decline of pork prices tends to narrow or rebound slightly. According to the statistics of securities times · databao, after the start of pork collection and storage, the pork price increased by an average of 1.03% in two weeks and 1.94% in four weeks. After the launch of the fourth pork purchase and storage last year, pork prices rose by 23.42% in less than a month. In the short term, pork purchase and storage can promote the rise of pig prices.
high cost increases promote capacity removal
The rise in upstream feed prices may push the industry to reduce production capacity. China's feed prices rose significantly in February. This month, the fattening compound was 3.66 yuan / kg, up 1.11% month on month and 7.9% year-on-year The Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) research report believes that considering that the feed costs of corn and soybean meal remained high in the first half of the year, the capacity of the industry may be accelerated under deep losses, or the industry took the initiative to eliminate sows with offspring in the second quarter, the price of sows is expected to reach a new low, and the expectation of a new round of cycle reversal is continuously strengthened.
Under the catalysis of the decline of pork prices and the rapid rise of cost side feed prices, the breeding losses of pig enterprises are increasing, which promotes the process of de production capacity of the industry. According to the data of the State Council, as of January 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.9 million, with a month on month decrease of 0.9%. It has decreased month on month for seven consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, which is the first year-on-year decrease in the number of sows since this round of pig cycle.
pig industry suffered huge losses last year and concept stocks rebounded recently
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, there are 25 stocks in the A-share market that have laid out the pig industry. Affected by the lower pork price, the performance of concept stocks suffered huge losses last year the loss of 14 companies that have released the performance forecast / express report reached 48.4 billion yuan, and the loss of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and shares exceeded 10 billion yuan, up to more than 18 billion yuan and more than 13 billion yuan respectively. Among the profit-making companies, only Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) made a profit of more than 1 billion yuan, which was 8 billion yuan, but the performance of all companies fell sharply compared with the previous year.
Previously, affected by the expectation of pork purchasing and storage, some stocks rebounded to a certain extent, Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) in February, rising 23.41% and 21.89% respectively, with Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) leading the gains.
Statistics show that in February, Beishang capital laid out a number of pig industry concept stocks, and 11 stocks gained an increase in Beishang capital positions, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) holdings, all of which increased by more than 10 million shares. Others were Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) holdings.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) recently said in investor research that the expected target of the company's sales volume in 2022 is about 18 million. The company's existing pig farm has a completed production capacity of about 46 million. In the long run, the company's primary plan is to gradually increase the output and achieve the maximum and full production.
Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) announcement shows that in 2021, the company's pig business developed steadily, and the number of pigs sold increased by 34.19% year-on-year.
From the perspective of institutional attention, seven pig industry concept stocks have received more than five institutional ratings, with the largest number of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ratings, all exceeding 10.
Statement: all information contents of databao do not constitute investment suggestions. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.
