Today (March 1), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, and then gradually fell. The stock index walked out of the differentiation pattern. The Shanghai index maintained the red market shock, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index further turned green and weakened.
On the disk, after the return of "white horse consumption", the market of "drinking and eating meat" reappeared. In terms of beer stocks, Fujian Yanjing Huiquan Brewery Co.Ltd(600573) limit, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and other gains were ahead; Pork stocks Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) limit, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) and other gains were higher. In addition, education, military industry, East West calculation, tourism hotels and other sectors also performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Ping An Securities said that the A-share market is still dominated by shocks, but structural opportunities are expected to increase, and the overall performance will be better than that in February. After March, with the release of economic data, the policy statements of the two sessions and the performance of listed companies, the uncertainty of the market will gradually decrease and the bottom of the market will be closer and closer. Structurally, it is suggested to focus on the energy and chemical sector that benefits from the expected catalysis of rising energy prices, and the policy direction represented by information + green energy new infrastructure.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme ] Baijiu
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that for Baijiu industry, short-term efforts should be made in the long term, and the trend of structural upgrading will not be changed. Around the Spring Festival, the epidemic control and control were relatively relaxed compared with 2021, and the terminal consumption scenarios were restored. The liquor industry's overall sales performance was stable and the channel refunds were good, but the regional differentiation characteristics (mainly caused by the epidemic in some areas) were repeated, and the performance of the Baijiu liquor was relatively better. From 2 to March, the Baijiu industry will enter the "shrinkage stage". But the good performance of the Spring Festival has laid a good foundation for the first quarter. We think that Baijiu 22Q1 can start a good start.
For the beer industry, high-end + price increase effect is realized, and attention is paid to systematic opportunities in peak seasons. On the whole, the logic of high-end industry continues to be deduced. It is expected that with the recovery of catering demand and the decline of raw material prices (the high glass price fell in January), the price increase effect of the industry is expected to be realized in the peak season of 21q2, and the report performance will release high elasticity.
Financial letter Securities said that the current position of the Baijiu sector can be more positive. At present, the biggest difficulty faced by the industry is that the macroeconomic downturn affects the consumption capacity, while at the industry level, the price and inventory of famous wines are healthy, and the industry order is improving. Looking forward to the future, (1) the impact of the epidemic is gradually passivated, epidemic prevention policies are more flexible, and the scope of limited consumption scenarios will be further reduced; (2) With the steady growth policy, macroeconomic stabilization and recovery is a relatively certain trend. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are mainly stable, and it is expected to strengthen again with the recovery of macro viewing attitude in the future. However, due to the uncertainty of the recovery speed of consumption capacity, the weak demand period may continue for some time. This stage especially tests the channel price and inventory control ability of wine enterprises, and the winery needs to balance the volume and price.
[Theme 2] pork
Dongguan securities mentioned that agriculture, as a basic industry for China's development, has carried out strategic deployment on key issues of agriculture in the two sessions over the years. It is expected that in the two sessions in 2022, the issues of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" will be focused again. At the same time, the two sessions are expected to actively discuss and provide certain strategic deployment according to the situation of China's seed industry and breeding sector. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises such as seed industry and breeding.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that after the pig price fell excessively, it entered the shock adjustment range, and the subsequent collection and storage work caused resistance to the continuous decline of short-term market prices. However, the oversupply of pig prices is still difficult to reverse, and the losses at the breeding end will continue. The sharp rise in feed prices caused by the current Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) comprehensive price rise of bulk will further push up the breeding cost and continue to promote the industry to take the initiative to reduce production capacity, which will further strengthen our expectation of starting the next round of rise in 2022.
The agency further analyzed that at this stage, the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually increase. Although the sector has increased greatly, the de novo average market value dimension is still in the bottom range, and the pig breeding sector is continuously recommended. Recommend targets with both safety and growth, with emphasis on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
For the agricultural industry opportunities in 2022, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that it firmly recommended the pig cycle. The core view is that in the bottom stage of the pig cycle, the deep loss period is the best time to layout breeding stocks. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks.
[Theme 3] military industry
Dongguan securities mentioned that the valuation of the military industry and aviation sector has fallen below the average value of nearly a year, so it can be arranged at an appropriate time. In the short term, the global interest rate increase cycle may have an impact on companies with high valuation. Superimposed on the fact that the performance growth rate of some military industrial groups is lower than expected, the industry may have great volatility in the short term, but the short-term volatility will not affect the high prosperity of the industry during the whole "14th five year plan" period. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated. The United States and its allies are showing signs of shifting their strategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. The emergence of the US Navy in the South China Sea has become a norm. The number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation.
Capital Securities pointed out that by grasping the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth: 1) contract liabilities of main engine manufacturers + verification of advance receipts, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; The body system pays attention to Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc.
2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from actual combat military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) , etc.
Minsheng Securities said that it is optimistic about the performance of the military industry in the aftermarket of 2022 based on the following points: 1) in the "three cycle superposition" proposed by our system, the industry gradually entered the "high growth" stage of supply-demand resonance during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and 2022, as the second year of the 14th five year plan, will still maintain high growth; 2) The company's performance confirms the high prosperity of the industrial chain. The contract liabilities disclosed in the 2021 interim report once again verify the sustainability of the high prosperity of the industry; 3) Since 2022, the sector has experienced a correction due to the impact of the market and some events, but the current position is at the bottom of the historical valuation. We expect the net profit of the industry to increase by more than 35% in 2022, with higher growth in the middle and upper reaches and high cost performance of the current configuration.
[theme 4] East and West
Xiangcai securities mentioned that in 2020, the scale of China's digital economy was US $5.4 trillion, ranking second in the world, with a growth rate of 9.6%, ranking first in the world. At present, the scale of China's data center has reached 5 million standard racks, and the computing power has reached 130 eflops According to the prediction of the high technology department of the national development and Reform Commission, with the comprehensive and continuous penetration of digital technology into all economic and social fields, it will still grow rapidly at a rate of more than 20% every year. In 2020, the market scale of China's Internet Data Center (IDC) has reached 223.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%.
The agency further analyzed that with the continuous breakthroughs in modern information technologies such as the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and cloud computing, the digital economy is advancing in an all-round way in China. As the core productivity of the digital economy, computing power will be the new focus of the next global strategic competition. The positioning of the data center has changed, from information service and Internet to infrastructure for the whole society, and gradually towards openness. In order to effectively support the digital transformation in various fields and provide new momentum for high-quality economic and social development. Through the East-West layout of computing facilities, it can drive the effective transfer of relevant industries and inject new impetus into the transformation and development of the western region. "Counting from the east to the west" is not only a landing project for the development of digital economy, but also an important item of new infrastructure. It will become an important starting point for steady economic growth.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the project of "counting from east to west" requires to promote the echelon layout of the data center from east to West: the eastern hub is mainly located at the nodes with large service users and strong application demand; The western hub is committed to building a national non real-time computing power guarantee base. "Counting from the east to the west" project generally focuses on the layout of large and super large data centers to relatively rich areas such as renewable energy. In urban areas, development space is reserved for edge data centers with low delay requirements.
The basic principle of constructing the collaborative innovation system of the national integrated big data center: the data center and service resource supply are determined by the actual market demand. Focusing on the long-term goal of leading the development of global cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and blockchain, moderately advance the layout and reserve development space, which is expected to drive the growth of the number of new cabinets.
At the same time, China will basically complete the wide coverage of 5g network in 2022, and 5g user penetration is expected to reach 70%. The growth of 5g traffic and the outbreak of 5g applications such as XR and autopilot / Internet of vehicles are expected to further stimulate IDC demand, resonate with the "East digital West computing" project and improve the prosperity of IDC investment.
