Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted in the short term, the overseas market has rebounded, and the mood of A-Shares has rebounded, but there are still repetitions under the shrinking trading volume. Do not blindly chase high, and strategic allocation can be considered for bargain hunting
When the overseas market rebounded, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened high. After the opening high shock, they once went down and turned green, and rebounded in the afternoon. In the last hour of trading, financial stocks made efforts, the index rose rapidly, the Shanghai index successfully recovered its 30 day moving average, the gem ushered in a new high of recent rebound, while the Shenzhen Composite Index performed mediocrely. On the disk, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the rise, while coal, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, communications and other sectors led the rise, while non-ferrous metals led the decline, while petroleum and petrochemical, basic chemistry and steel fell.
Throughout the day, track stocks once rose, but the overall differentiation. Benefiting from the boost of the German energy "independence" plan event and the sharp rise of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) concept stocks in the US stock market, the photovoltaic sector once rose in the morning. Although it fell back in the afternoon, it performed well all day. In addition, the rise of the index at the end of today's trading was mainly boosted by financial stocks.
Therefore, from mid February to now, we found that the sector is being repaired as a whole. Although it is rotating, the overall focus is gradually improving, which plays a positive role in the recovery of market enthusiasm. At the same time, after a month of volume reduction, the two cities also ushered in a continuous trading volume of more than trillion last week, and the short-term sentiment is also gradually picking up.
Of course, on the whole, the recovery of market sentiment is still relatively small. After all, the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts is still uncertain. Although the overall impact on A-Shares is limited, if the global contraction trend accelerates, it will also suppress the capital market to a certain extent. Therefore, if there is a rebound in the current market, at least we can't blindly catch up, and we don't recommend heavy positions to participate.
However, the overall support and boost of the current market still exist, and the logic for the better has not changed, which may provide a good opportunity for radical investors to allocate strategically. Especially after the continuous adjustment of the index, with the gradual recovery of sentiment, the phased cost performance of sectors and individual stocks is also highlighted, and the allocation is at the right time.
In short, February has come to an end. Looking forward to March, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting the market is expected to slow down, and there may be a slowing trend in sentiment. As the important meeting is about to be held, the market's boost to the policy and the expectation of a better economy has started, which still boosts the market sentiment. Of course, the most important thing is the support of the policy bottom under steady growth and the stimulation of the overall boost of liquidity under the opening of the easing cycle. The logic of the overall improvement of the market remains unchanged. Continue to be optimistic about the possible arrival of the spring market. At the time of index shock consolidation, there is a high probability of grinding the bottom. Radical investors can consider starting strategic allocation, while steady investors, while tentatively building or adding positions, patiently wait for the market direction to be clear.
