Investment view
“Neutral and tight capital + wide credit differentiation” is the main logic of short-term bond market trading, and the 10-year Treasury bond returned to the opening point on Monday. The main tone of macro policy this year is steady growth, real estate is the key to steady growth, and policy relaxation is a series of events. Long end interest rate trading needs to consider the impact of policy rhythm, and the position should not go against the wind. It is recommended that investors take 5bp as the downward target value for small positions (10%) as the band. It is recommended to refer to technical analysis indicators such as treasury bond futures for trading rhythm, and it is recommended to continue to wait patiently for the configuration disk (20%).
The main reason for more short-term upside this week may be that the overall liquidity of commercial banks has shifted to the entity level, the capital side is relatively tight, and the subsequent RRR reduction policy is still expected. However, M1, real estate sales and other leading indicators of economic activity follow up or have inflection points, “steady growth” will begin to restrict the broad currency. Steady growth is not cyclical upward, and there is a ceiling for interest rate adjustment. In the process of realizing the effect of steady growth, the reasonable fluctuation range of the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds is [2.78%, 2.95%]. It is suggested to pay attention to the 3-5-year AAA national shares and joint-stock bank credit bonds, and the basic positions of three-year high-quality AAA credit bonds and interest rate bonds continue to be concentrated in the 3-5-year varieties.
Important information forecast
China mainly suggests to pay attention to the PMI data of February released on March 1 and the fifth session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee held in Beijing on March 4, of which the PMI value in mid January is 50.1 and Caixin is 49.1; It is suggested that foreign countries pay attention to the February US employment data released on March 4, focusing on the new non-agricultural employment in February, which was 467000.
Liquidity environment
The cumulative net financing of interest rate bonds throughout the week was 93.544 billion, and the maturity of reverse repurchase was 810 billion. Next week, 31 interest rate bonds were issued in the whole week, with a total issuance of 169722 billion. Three bonds matured in the whole week, with a repayment amount of 76.178 billion and a cumulative net financing amount of 93.544 billion; The central bank disclosed that the maturity of 7-day reverse repo was 810 billion, and the operating interest rate was 2.10%.
High frequency data tracking
In terms of consumption, the increasing severity of the epidemic has driven consumption to continue to repair at a low slope; The price of most industrial products in the midstream started to rise year-on-year; The decline of real estate continued, and the number and area of commercial housing transactions continued to decline year-on-year this week; The start-up and production capacity of the manufacturing industry are poor, and the start-up rate and industrial chain load rate are down year-on-year; Foreign trade continued to improve, with BDI, CCFI and SCFI rising significantly year-on-year; Most of the prices of consumer goods went down and most of the prices of industrial products went up, driving inflation factors to be worry free in the short term.
Risk tip: China’s fundamentals have changed more than expected; The credit easing policy was stronger than expected.
