The US dollar index continued to rise, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed significantly, Ted interest rate spread widened significantly, and China’s capital was tightened. The dollar index continued to rise last week (2022120225). As of February 22, 2022, the net long position of the dollar continued to rise. The interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed significantly, the nominal interest rate of US bonds rose, the real interest rate fell, and inflation expectations rebounded. Overseas, Ted’s interest rate spread has widened significantly, which is lower than the historical center as a whole, and the financial liquidity in the United States is still relatively abundant; For China, inter-bank capital has tightened, liquidity stratification has intensified, and term interest margin (10y-1y) continues to narrow. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of most industries has rebounded, among which the trading heat and volatility level of construction, coal, electricity and public utilities are at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, electronics, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, building materials, medicine, household appliances, nonferrous metals, new electricity and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation sector shrinks to buy, and the trading sector is still the main selling force, with a vague overall style. Last week (2022120225), the northbound allocation market bought a net 3.385 billion yuan, and the northbound trading market sold A-Shares a net 10.03 billion yuan. On a daily basis, the northward allocation sector was net sold on Wednesday (20223) and net bought on other trading days; In the northbound trading, it chose to buy on Wednesday (20223) and Friday (20225), and obviously sold on the other trading days. In the industry, the degree of consensus between the trading sector and the configuration sector has increased. The consensus is to net buy new power, coal, power and utilities, medicine, media, household appliances and other industries, and net sell non banking, chemical, automobile, steel, machinery and other industries. In terms of style, northbound configuration / trading sector has differences in the growth / value sector of the large market, and all choose to sell the growth / value sector of the medium / small market. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board net bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 186 million yuan and sold Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 491 million yuan and 86 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, last week, the allocation disk mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the pharmaceutical sector.
The activity of the two financial institutions continued to rise, and the overall level was at the late December 2021 level. Last week (2022120225), Liangrong net bought 9.656 billion yuan, mainly buying chemical industry, nonferrous metals, finance, petroleum and petrochemical, computer and other sectors, and mainly selling Dianxin, medicine, electronics, consumer services and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in food and beverage, light industry, chemical industry, steel, finance, electronics, petroleum and petrochemical sectors increased month on month. Except for the light industry sector, the proportion of financing purchases in the above sectors was below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net sold the growth of the market and the value sector of the middle market, and net bought other styles.
The public offering position remained volatile, and Jimin chose to “copy the bottom”, and the wide-based ETF mainly held by institutions was re purchased. Last week (2022120225), the A-share position of the active partial share fund remained volatile. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its positions in food and beverage, media, household appliances, financial real estate, consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, building materials, construction and other sectors, and mainly reduced its positions in new power, electronics, medicine, military industry, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other sectors. Last week, the net subscription of ETF mainly held by institutions, among which the wide base ETF was re subscribed; ETFs mainly held by individuals are also net subscribed, which means that individual investors may choose “bottom reading” funds, and the market may be in a “negative feedback” state (i.e. “sell up and buy down”),
Among them, ETFs related to financial real estate, consumption, science and technology, military industry, new energy, cycle and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to medicine, media and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy financial, real estate, consumption and other sectors and sell medicine and other sectors, while there are differences in science and technology, new energy, military industry and other sectors. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys financial real estate and some cyclical sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought coal, electricity and some technology sectors. On the whole, the market consensus has rebounded. All kinds of investors have relatively high purchase consensus in building materials and household appliances, followed by coal, real estate, transportation, banking, food and beverage, media, construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computer and other sectors. It is worth mentioning that at present, domestic capital (public offering and financing) is still gradually buying financial real estate and some cyclical sectors, and choosing to reduce its holdings of some growth sectors. The overall style of foreign capital also gradually tends to be blurred, and the “gap” between domestic and foreign capital further converges, which is also the embodiment of another dimension of repeated market style in the near future.
Risk tip: measurement error.
