Key investment points:
Overseas, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate, and the global financial market fluctuated. On February 24, an explosion occurred in the border area between Russia and Ukraine, and the war between Russia and Ukraine continued to spread. At the same time, US and European sanctions against Russia also continued to escalate, including excluding some Russian banks from the global Interbank Financial Communication Association (Swift) payment system. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the global financial market fluctuated violently last week.
In the stock market, the Russian RTS index fell sharply, while other markets fell more or rose less. Last week, affected by the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, there was a sharp shock in the overseas market. The Russian RTS index fell by 32.66%, and other markets fell more or rose less. Among them, the Dow Jones index fell 0.06%, the NASDAQ index rose 1.08%, and the S & P 500 index fell 5.16%; France’s CAC40 index fell 2.46%, while Germany’s DAX index fell 3.16%; The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.38%, and the Korea composite index fell 2.47%; The Hang Seng Index fell 6.41%. The A-share index was mixed, with the Shanghai index down 1.13% and the gem index up 1.03%.
In the bond market, US bond yields rose slightly, and treasury bond yields took the lead in going up and down. Affected by factors such as US economic sanctions against Russia and inflation expectations, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose slightly from 1.92% to 1.97% last week. For China, under the combined effect of credit easing expectations and the central bank’s continuous increase in the scale of reverse repurchase operations, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds took the lead to close at 2.78% up and down, and the yield of 10-year CDB bonds rose slightly to 3.04%.
In terms of commodities, oil rose, gold fell, and thermal coal led the decline of black five categories. Affected by the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, crude oil soared last week, of which Brent crude oil exceeded US $100 / barrel for the first time since September 2014. With the release of short-term risk aversion caused by the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, gold rose and fell, and Comex gold closed below US $1900 / ounce. For China’s black system, on February 24, the national development and Reform Commission held a special press conference to further improve the coal market price formation mechanism, and made it clear that the reasonable price of 5500k coal in QinGang is between 570770 yuan per ton, which is narrower than the previous range (550850 yuan / ton), so as to effectively realize the “upper limit to ensure power and lower limit to ensure coal”. Affected by the policy, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal fell 10.45% last week. Other black five categories, coke rose 7.71%, iron ore rose 6.03%, coking coal rose 4.07%, rebar fell 1.37%.
With the marginal weakening of peripheral geopolitical and other factors and the approaching of the two sessions, the market focus is expected to gradually return to China’s policy factors. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to energy storage and other sectors with policy expectations during the two sessions. As for bulk commodities, crude oil still has room to rise due to the continuous geopolitical conflict, insufficient idle capacity of OPEC, weakening impact of the epidemic and other supply and demand factors. In contrast, considering the release of short-term risk aversion caused by the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and from a technical point of view, Comex gold has great pressure around us $1960 / oz, and gold faces adjustment pressure in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, under the influence of factors such as high global inflation and the adjustment of the Federal Reserve’s radical expectation of raising interest rates, gold is expected to regain support and start a new upward trend around us $1880 / ounce after short-term adjustment. In the medium and long term, gold still has allocation value.
Risk tip: the global economic downturn exceeded expectations, the policy promotion was less than expected, the global liquidity contraction exceeded expectations, and the geopolitical conflict exceeded expectations.
