1. The war between Russia and Ukraine led to a huge earthquake in the financial market and a rise in the prices of related commodities. We take the South China Commodity Index as a representative to observe the trend of commodity prices since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As of February 25, the South China Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) index, South China Nonferrous Metals index, South China precious metals index and South China energy and chemical index increased by 6.0%, 2.3%, 5.9% and 4.2% respectively compared with the end of January. With the release of risk aversion and the relative easing of the war situation, On February 25, the relevant commodity indexes have been corrected.
2. It is estimated that the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on China’s CPI is generally limited, whether it is only to measure the impact of oil price fluctuations on CPI and PPI, or comprehensively consider Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and related industrial products. The impact on PPI is greater than CPI, which may drive the PPI to rise slightly in February, but does not change the downward trend of PPI in the whole year.
Risk tip: geopolitical risk uncertainty is high, and the calculation method is not rigorous enough
