Most provinces lowered their economic growth targets for 2022. By February 2022, the full text of the government work reports of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China had been published. Faced with the supply shock, demand contraction and uncertainty of the external economic and political environment caused by the normalization of the epidemic, most provinces lowered their economic growth targets for 2022, but maintained them at more than 5%. Among the provinces whose economic growth target is lower than that in 2021, Hubei Province has the largest reduction of 3%. Followed by Tianjin and Shanxi down by 1.5% respectively, while most of the other provinces down by 0.5% or 1%. Hainan Province has the highest economic growth target of 9% in 2022. The provinces with the lowest economic growth rate of 5% in 2022 are Beijing and Tianjin. On the whole, the developed provinces with large economic volume have made steady progress, and the underdeveloped areas with small economic volume have accelerated the pace of economic growth. Under such a trend, the imbalance of economic development among regions in China may gradually narrow.
Actively expanding effective investment remains an important starting point for stabilizing the economy. In 2022, 22 provinces set the growth rate (range) target of fixed asset investment, with a range of 5.5% – 10%. Most of the provinces that set the growth rate target of high-level fixed asset investment are located in Northwest and Northeast China. From the general tone of investment, most provinces proposed to “actively expand effective investment”.
Most provinces have set the target of zero social growth to promote the recovery of consumption. 25 provinces, cities and autonomous regions have set clear growth targets for the total retail sales of consumer goods. Among them, the growth target of Hubei, Hainan, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Tibet is higher than 9%. On the whole, the measures to promote consumption in all provinces and cities are generally applicable and adapted to local conditions. The commonly used measures mainly include: first, take multiple measures to further restore the consumption scene; Second, focus on bulk consumer goods and launch consumption promotion policies from the aspects of automobiles, household appliances, furniture and building materials. Third, further promote the integrated development of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption. Fourth, create a good consumption environment from the aspects of consumer protection and logistics.
Adhere to the positioning of “housing without speculation” and constantly optimize the structure of housing supply and demand. Maintaining the stable operation of the real estate market is the main goal of real estate regulation. Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development once again stressed that real estate should not be used as a tool and means to stimulate the economy in the short term, and proposed to build and raise 2.4 million affordable rental houses, 100000 new public rental houses and 1.2 million shantytowns in 2022. At the same time, we will also accelerate the construction of the long-term rental housing market. The main measures of the real estate market in all provinces focus on ensuring housing land supply, accelerating the development of long-term rental housing market, promoting the construction of affordable rental housing, and strengthening the management of housing rental market.
Major energy provinces implement the responsibility of ensuring energy supply. Affected by repeated epidemics, sustained economic recovery of major economies, constraints on energy and resource supply, geopolitical risks and other factors, energy and resource prices have risen sharply since the second half of 2021. Ensuring energy supply and stabilizing supply and price has become a key task, which has been mentioned by the central government for many times. Strengthening the supply and price stability of coal and other energy has become one of the tasks of major energy provinces in 2022. For example, Inner Mongolia proposes to promote sufficient power supply and ensure the supply of coal and electricity; Shanxi proposes to promote the nuclear increase of coal mine production capacity in an orderly manner, release advanced production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, and ensure national energy security.
There is little pressure to complete the employment target in 2022. According to the Ministry of human resources and social security, 12.69 million new urban jobs will be created in 2021. In 2022, on the premise that all provinces achieve the target, China is expected to increase the urban employment population by more than 16 million. The unemployment rate in most provinces is expected to be within 5.5% in 2022.
