Key investment points:
Macro: internationally, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to heat up; Affected by the war, the MOEX index fell sharply, the ruble continued to depreciate, and the oil price also rose to the highest point since 2015, forming international inflationary pressure; At present, Russian and Ukrainian representatives have arrived in Belarus to prepare for negotiations, which is expected to bring a turnaround. The interest rate difference between China and the United States narrowed to around 80bp, and the RMB showed a certain risk aversion attribute and appreciated moderately. At the Chinese level, the Politburo meeting called for “seeking progress while maintaining stability, strengthening the implementation of macro-control policies” and “strengthening the prevention and control of financial risks, punishing financial corruption and maintaining the overall situation of financial stability”. High frequency data show that although February was strongly affected by the seasonal factors of the Spring Festival and the month on month data weakened, the year-on-year economic growth continued to pick up. PMI data will be released on March 1. Considering the strong influence of seasonal factors, the month on month growth of PMI may be limited, but it is expected to remain on the boom line. At the same time, the economic data of January and February will be released successively in mid March. It is expected that the investment side real estate and infrastructure will be repaired to a certain extent, and the macro fundamentals are stable and getting better on the whole.
Stocks: major global indexes fluctuated sharply last week. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian market plunged 46.6%; The US market fell first and then rose, the Dow fell slightly, the European and Asia Pacific markets as a whole were weak, and the Hang Seng Index fell more than 6%. The Chinese market fluctuated. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes rebounded significantly, while the rebound of gem, CSI 300 and other indexes was weak. The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 842.7 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 0.56%. Last week, 10 industries rose and 20 industries fell; New energy, military industry and electronics led the increase; Construction, building materials and media led the decline. Storage, semiconductor, shale gas, etc. led the increase; Major infrastructure, airports and digital currencies led the decline. In March, China will usher in the two sessions, which will focus on economic construction. The Russian Ukrainian war had a significant impact on some industries. The market may be divided and the overall shock pattern will be maintained. It is suggested to maintain a 60% position and focus on industries greatly affected by the Russian Ukrainian war and sectors with stable growth and expanded consumption in China, such as petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, non-ferrous metals, construction, medicine and other industries.
Bonds: the bond market fell first and then rose last week, which is more tangled. On Monday, Guangzhou and other places of interest rate reduction of housing mortgage news to stimulate news to strengthen the broad credit expectations, Tuesday night, No. 1 central document mentioned that “the institutional juridical person in the county, business in the county level, funds mainly used for Rural Revitalization of the local legal institutions, and implement more preferential deposit reserve policy” after the expected drop in temperature. “Wide credit” and “wide currency” are caught in a tug of war between expectation and reality: in terms of wide credit, the real estate policy has further warmed up, but the high-frequency data such as sales and land acquisition are still weak; In terms of broad currency, the directional RRR reduction is expected to heat up, but funds tend to be tight and overnight prices are high. After March, the shortage of funds is expected to gradually ease and reduce the pressure of short-term adjustment. The tug of war between long-term expectation and reality continues. We believe that there may still be room for the adjustment of the bond market, focusing on the performance of PMI, financial data and real estate high-frequency data.
Asset allocation: stocks 25%, bonds 25%, commodities 25%, REITs 25%.
Risk warning: policy and economic data prediction are not as expected, and unexpected risk events, etc; The large asset allocation simulation portfolio is only used for back testing, and the past rate of return does not represent the future situation.
