The key points of the report are "steady growth", which will continue to benefit the foundation sector, but attention should be paid to the transmission between policy and reality; US inflation continues to be high, and the core problems of labor shortage and tight supply chain cannot be solved in a short time, which is good for precious metals and energy sectors; The short-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased the volatility of energy, precious metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, but the long-term impact is expected to be limited.
Summary:
In February, the "steady growth" policy continued to work, but attention should be paid to the transmission between policy and reality. As can be seen from China's currency implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021 released in January, the general tone of China's policy is still to be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, and the relevant wording indicates that the intensity of credit easing is expected to increase. In addition to a number of "steady growth" measures released by multiple departments this month, in the PMI data of January, the PMI of large enterprises rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to 51.6%, and the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rebounded by 3.2 percentage points to 57.5%, indicating that the "steady growth" policy is showing results. However, it should be noted that the sales data of the real estate sector, one of the main drivers of "steady growth", continued to weaken in January. We need to observe the follow-up "steady growth" policy. We expect the sales data to bottom out and stabilize after March, and China's economy is expected to bottom out and recover.
High inflation in the United States may not be resolved in the short term, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will increase energy, precious metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) fluctuations in the short term. Us CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January and is expected to rise 7.3%, boosting the Fed's 50bp expectation of raising interest rates in March. We believe that the core causes of high inflation in the United States are labor shortage and tight supply chain. According to the labor data in January and the congestion of ports, it can not be solved in the short term. Sustained inflation may be good for energy and precious metal prices. The short-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to increased fluctuations in energy, precious metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) volatility, but the west is generally unwilling to send troops to join the struggle, and the long-term impact is expected to be limited.
In February, the net inflow of the minimum margin size of futures market positions was 9.536 billion yuan: the net inflow of financial sector was 100 million yuan, and the net inflow of commodity sector was 9.436 billion yuan. In terms of transaction positions, in the financial sector, the trading volume and positions of stock indexes and treasury bonds showed an upward trend as a whole. Trading positions in the commodity sector generally rose, and only black trading positions decreased. In terms of the range of rise and fall, in the financial sector, the stock index futures closed up, while the Treasury bond futures closed down; The commodity sector rose mostly, with rising varieties accounting for 64% and falling varieties accounting for 36%.
