Consumption sector: the overall prosperity has warmed up, focusing on food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
The overall prosperity of the consumer sector has warmed up. In terms of total consumption, the total social retail sales continued to pick up, the retail price of commodities rebounded slightly, and the consumption of communication equipment, oil and products improved significantly. Among them, food and beverage industry upside down, high-end Baijiu prices remain high, Moutai’s price is flat, Baijiu production growth picked up, milk, fresh milk prices rose. In agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the prices of piglets, pigs and pork continue to rise, and the average prices of broiler seedlings and live chickens continue to rise. Affected by the yellow chicken plate, the prosperity may continue to improve; The price index of traditional Chinese medicine continued to rise, the prices of vitamin A and e decreased month on month, and the prices of lysine and methionine decreased month on month; The supply side of passenger cars rebounded, and the retail performance improved relatively; Pulp prices increased month on month, corrugated paper prices decreased month on month, the total wood index increased slightly, and the spot prices of MDI and TDI decreased month on month; Yiwu commodity price index declined slightly; In October, the growth rate of air conditioning sales increased month on month.
Growth sector: the boom is divided, focusing on new energy vehicles and consumer electronics
The prosperity of the growth plate is divided. In October, the global semiconductor sales continued to grow, the sales growth in China slowed down, and the fee half index fluctuated at a high level, with a ring on ring increase of 2.44% in the past two weeks; Recently, consumer electronics prices remained stable, and smartphone shipments picked up significantly in October; In November, the price of tablet computer panel continued the downward trend, and the price decline of TV LCD panel slowed down; In the past two weeks, the overall price of photovoltaic industry chain has been corrected, the price of silicon wafer has decreased significantly, the price of components and cells has decreased slightly, and the downstream cost pressure has been reduced; In mid November, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto sales maintained a high growth, with retail and wholesale sales of 378000 and 429000 vehicles respectively, up 19.40% and 17.90% month on month respectively; In terms of penetration, the penetration rates of retail and wholesale of new energy vehicles in China in November were 20.8% and 19.9% respectively, and the penetration rates from January to November were 13.9% and 15.0% respectively. The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased again; In terms of lithium battery materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has risen at a high level in recent two weeks, the price of artificial graphite cathode materials has risen again, and the prices of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate have remained stable; In terms of communication industry, in October, the 5g penetration rate of the three major operators continued to increase, the revenue of emerging businesses maintained a high increase, and the scale of users of cellular Internet of things continued to expand.
Large financial sector: the overall recovery of the economy and focus on diversified Finance
In October, the sales area of commercial housing decreased, and the national housing boom index continued to decline. The growth rate of housing price index fell slightly. The interest rate of individual housing loans continued to fall, and the transaction area of commercial housing increased in the past two weeks. The land transaction area and transaction premium rate decreased simultaneously. The land acquisition area remained low year-on-year. In October, the social finance and credit data stopped the downward trend, and the trend of bottoming and stabilizing was obvious. The short-term interest rate and long-term interest rate increased first and then decreased, and the capital side remained relatively loose. Premium income continued to fall in October. The balance of margin trading and securities lending declined slightly, and the stock exchange took the lead in falling and then rising.
Cycle sector: marginal improvement of prosperity, focusing on steel and building materials
Marginal improvement of prosperity of cyclical plates. Recently, the operation of the coal market has stabilized, the low price of power coal has stabilized, the futures price of double coke has rebounded, and the high inventory of port coal has been corrected; Overseas crude oil prices continued to callback and natural gas prices rose in shock. As of December 7, the number of crude oil rigs in the United States increased and commercial crude oil inventories fell slightly; The prosperity of the non-ferrous metals industry is divided internally, the prices of aluminum, copper, zinc and nickel are down, the price of tin is up slightly, the price of gold remains volatile, among new energy metals, the price of lithium rises at a high level, and the price of cobalt continues to rise; China’s iron ore and steel prices rose, rebar stocks fell, the daily average steel output of major enterprises rebounded, and the daily average crude steel output fell slightly; The chemical commodity index continued to fall, and the prices of chemical raw materials and products generally fell. Among them, the prices of polyester fell, and the prices of PVC and polymerized MDI continued to fall; In terms of building materials, the factory index of float glass rebounded, and the cement price index is still in a downward trend; In November, the PMI of the construction industry rebounded, the PMI of new orders rose, and the prosperity of the construction industry recovered; In October, the sales volume of loaders and cranes was low, the output of metal cutting machine tools decreased, and the prosperity of the machinery industry was still low; In terms of shipping, recently, China’s and international dry bulk index rebounded, and China’s container export freight index rose and fell unevenly. Among them, CCFI composite index and European route index continued to decline, and the US west route index rose.
Risk tip: the prosperity index of some industries fails to fully describe the prosperity of the industry, the economy changes too fast, resulting in the lag of the prosperity index, the deviation of the understanding of the industry prosperity, the recurrence of covid-19 epidemic, etc
