In February, with the support of the "steady growth" policy, the resumption of production and work led to the obvious expansion of the economic kinetic energy index (showing a leading role in GDP), an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous month. The recovery of domestic demand is obvious, the production index slows down slightly and is still in the expansion range, the manufacturing employment index has improved, and the market has consistent and strong confidence in economic recovery. Thanks to the state's support for the development of high-end manufacturing, carbon neutral and clean energy, as well as the promotion fee policy, high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer industries show a high boom, and high-energy consuming industries such as steel industry continue to be in the tightening range.? (I) supply and demand: the new order index has entered the boom range of more than 50% for the first time in nearly six months, expanding by 1.4 percentage points compared with January. The production index slowed by 0.5 percentage points compared with the margin in January, recording 50.4%, but it is still in the boom range. (II) price: originally, the global crude oil inventory was at the bottom of the cycle, superimposed with political conflicts and sanctions between Europe, America and Russia. The market was worried that it would deplete the remaining capacity of the global oil market. The oil price was boosted to the highest point in two years, supporting the slight rise of the price index of raw materials and finished products. (III) inventory: enterprises passively destocked, finished product inventory and raw material inventory index fell, domestic demand expanded and consumed finished product inventory, marginal slowdown of production enthusiasm (superimposed with the reasons for price rise) and inactive replenishment of raw material inventory. (IV) import and export: new orders increased significantly, and new export orders also improved marginally compared with the previous month. The domestic demand represented by the difference between the two rebounded significantly, expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. The import index expanded marginally by 1.4 percentage points compared with January, and the import is mainly driven by small enterprises.
In February, the boom index difference between large enterprises and small enterprises reached an all-time high, and small enterprises should still be the focus of policy support. The state has successively issued a series of "steady growth" policies, which have achieved obvious results in supporting the growth of large enterprises (concentrated in central enterprises and industry leaders). Medium-sized enterprises have also been in the expansion range for four consecutive months, and their production and demand have improved. Affected by the national transformation policy, small enterprises bear a heavy load in the industry competition; Under the background of repeated superposition of the epidemic and great downward pressure on the economy, the business prosperity fell to the lowest level since the epidemic in February.
Different from previous years, the PMI index of the construction industry in February this year was boosted by the "infrastructure policy", and each sub item was significantly expanded compared with January. The government issued the special debt quota and fiscal policy in advance, and the infrastructure growth is expected to underpin the economy; Major transportation projects have become the main focus; More underground adjustment of the interest rate of the first house, and the inflection point at the bottom of the balance of real estate development loans has passed. The cumulative capital construction and transportation in fixed asset investment increased year-on-year. The service industry still needs to be improved due to the factors restricting the consumption scene of the epidemic blockade.
Risk factors: the virus epidemic in China exceeded expectations and the policy was less than expected.
