Follow up and reduce the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate. This week, the local government continued to introduce relaxation policies, optimized the provident fund system in Shenzhen, and followed up with Nanning and Jinzhong to reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund. In terms of credit, the time of mortgage lending in Shanghai has been accelerated, the mortgage interest rates in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Nantong have been adjusted underground, and the banks in Nantong, Foshan and other places have successively reduced the down payment ratio of commercial loans. We believe that the reduction of mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio will effectively reduce the threshold of house purchase funds, activate rigid demand and improve the application of home buyers for loans, and the market is expected to gradually pick up. At present, the national housing loan interest rate is relatively 5-year lpr4 The increase of 6% is still high. We think there is room for further decline in the interest rate of follow-up housing loans.
Shanghai announced the first batch of land supply plans, and the transfer rules have been adjusted. The first batch of 40 land auction listings in Shanghai, including homestead, of which 36 are supplied in the suburbs. The supply is still mainly in the suburbs, and the total capital threshold is low. The total transferred construction area is 4.46 million square meters, and the total starting price is 85.07 billion yuan. At the same time, the local auction rules have been adjusted, and the bid evaluation method and random value rules have been modified. The new bid evaluation method is divided into two categories: commercial bid and technical bid. The random value rule is adjusted so that all bidders with the same quotation can modify their quotation. We believe that this adjustment will not only refine the technical indicators, pay attention to the trading and financial strength of the bid winning enterprises, but also test the product strength and landing ability of the bid winner. At the same time, increase the participation of bidders in the subsequent quotation stage, and the fairness will be further guaranteed.
The policy release is strengthened step by step, and the upward space of the sector can be expected. At present, the valuation center of the industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. Under the background of stable growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step, and the release of easing policies will be gradually transmitted from the supply side to the demand side. The subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. We continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development.
