Key investment points:
This month, CITIC computer index fell 0.06%, underperforming the market by 3.06 percentage points and outperforming the gem by 0.89 percentage points, ranking 25th among 30 CITIC primary industries. 174 stocks rose, 1 was flat and 113 fell, mainly rising. On February 28, the TTM overall valuation of CITIC computer industry was 47.65 times, significantly lower than all medium and long-term average levels.
Data: (1) according to the prediction of IDC circle, the business scale of China's data center will reach 486.79 billion yuan in 2023, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2023 will reach 29.6%, which is still at a very fast growth level. (2) According to the 2021q4 financial report data of the world's top four cloud computing manufacturers, the growth rates of AWS, azure, Google cloud and Alibaba cloud Q4 were 40%, 46%, 44.6% and 20% respectively, an increase of 1, - 4, - 0.03 and - 13 percentage points respectively compared with the previous quarter. Alibaba cloud performed the worst in terms of absolute growth rate and growth change.
This month, the computer was mainly affected by the news of the launch of the "counting from the east to the west" project, and the relevant concept stocks ushered in a significant rise. However, we believe that counting from the east to the West will change the competition pattern of the original data center, and the impact on the prosperity of the existing data center is uncertain. At present, the capital level is still in the stage of conceptual speculation. The data center's energy conservation and emission reduction, cable network construction and other links are more deterministic in terms of benefits from counting from the east to the West.
The Ukrainian war this month led to the intensification of sanctions against Russia, and the United States agreed to prohibit Russia from using swift system. The use of financial nuclear bombs on superpowers has broken the hidden rules of the world order. It also means that RMB will be used in more monetary settlement, which is conducive to the development and accelerated application of digital currency.
In March, on the one hand, the market remained vigilant against the US interest rate hike. The continuous breaking of the epidemic in Hong Kong also increased the risk of import to the mainland. The war in Ukraine may affect the supply of semiconductor gas and chip; On the other hand, due to the government's attention to the digital economy, more favorable policies for the industry are expected to be released during the two sessions. Considering that the overall valuation of the industry is at a low level, the downward space is relatively limited, and many excellent companies in the industry have been at a relatively low level in history, it is suggested to choose the best layout from the perspective of long-term investment and give the industry an investment rating stronger than the big market.
It is suggested to actively pay attention to investment opportunities in the fields of network security, information innovation and digital currency.
Recommended targets of this month: B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) ( B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) ), Venustech Group Inc(002439) ( Venustech Group Inc(002439) ), Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) ( Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) ), Geovis Technology Co.Ltd(688568) ( Geovis Technology Co.Ltd(688568) ), Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) ( Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) ), Suzhou Iron Technology Co.Ltd(688329) ( Suzhou Iron Technology Co.Ltd(688329) ).
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The epidemic development exceeded expectations
