The large-scale layout of new energy power generation, energy storage into a rigid demand, and then rejuvenated. The development of China's energy storage market began in 2010. After more than ten years of development, some technologies have been verified, demonstration application projects have been successfully implemented, and the business model has been improved in the exploration. In 2020, under the "double carbon" goal, renewable energy development received unprecedented attention. Under the pressure of a high proportion of unstable renewable energy consumption, many provincial and local governments and power grid companies put forward the supporting development policy of centralized "new energy + energy storage". In 2021, the central government made it clear for the first time that energy storage is the key supporting technology for carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, The value of energy storage technology for the large-scale popularization of new energy is fully reflected and a consensus has been reached. The "integration of wind, water and fire storage" and "integration of source, network, load and storage" promote the prosperity of energy storage market and "wind and rain" power generation new energy market.
Short term: the development of energy storage needs policy guidance and depends on the transformation of new power system. Since 2021, the intensive policies issued at the national level have boosted the investment enthusiasm of the energy storage market, and the development space and sustainability of the energy storage industry have been fully released. The central government's positioning of new energy storage determines that its development still depends on the transformation of new power system in the short term. The traceable indicators include the proportion of new energy distribution and storage on the generation side, the proportion of new energy consumption, the installed number of new energy, the flexibility level of power grid on the transmission and distribution side, and the peak valley price difference demand on the user side.
Long term: mature business model supports steady development. The participants of energy storage should take advantage of the reform of policy and market mechanism, explore and establish a mature business model, realize real subject independence and obtain bargaining power in the energy storage service market, so as to ensure the steady development of the industry. Chinese energy storage enterprises have developed a variety of profit models on the power generation side, transmission and distribution side and user side: peak shaving and valley filling income, peak shaving and frequency modulation and other grid auxiliary services, supporting energy storage leasing, shared energy storage and energy contract management. At present, most large-scale energy storage power stations in China mainly participate in frequency modulation service or peak shaving service, and the user side energy storage mainly carries out peak valley arbitrage service, with a single source of income. In the future, while establishing a stable business model, energy storage, as an independent market subject, can participate in multiple market segments to realize benefit superposition.
In terms of energy storage technology path, new energy storage has sprung up, electrochemical energy storage is the mainstream, and compressed air energy storage and molten salt energy storage are worth looking forward to. According to cnesa data, by the end of 2020, the cumulative proportion of electrochemical energy storage projects in operation is about 9.2%, of which lithium-ion battery is about 88.8%, driving the energy storage inverter into a high-speed development stage; The scale of molten salt energy storage is further expanded, accounting for 1.5%. The molten salt energy storage technology system has simple structure and low initial investment cost. It is an effective way to realize the large-scale utilization of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency, safety and economy; On September 30, 2021, the grid connection test of the world's first non supplementary combustion compressed air energy storage power station was successful, which can improve the power conversion efficiency to more than 60%. In October 2021, China's first 10MW advanced compressed air energy storage system was connected to the grid in Bijie, Guizhou. Advanced compressed air energy storage technology has the advantages of large scale, low cost, long service life, clean and pollution-free, unlimited energy storage cycle, independent of fossil fuels and geographical conditions. It is a long-term and large-scale energy storage technology with great development potential.
Investment suggestion: the new energy storage industry chain is accelerating technological breakthrough and market-oriented layout, and the track has broad prospects. In the cost structure of the electrochemical energy storage system, the cost structure of the cost structure of the electrochemical electrochemical energy storage system, with the exception of the battery, PCS (20%) has the highest share of the cost structure, with the exception of the battery. In the cost structure of the cost structure of the energy storage system, PCS (20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the 20% of the total. In the cost structure of the cost structure of the energy storage system, except for the battery, PCS (20%) has the highest share of the cost structure. It focuses on the energy storage inverter, focusing on the energy storage inverter and the Integration Leader Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\35, In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the temperature control for energy storage. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the temperature control for energy storage. In addition to the temperature control for the storage of energy. In addition to the following suggestions, it'\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\; The advanced compressed air energy storage technology in China is on the same track as that in the world, and there have been many successful demonstration and application projects. It is recommended that the turbine machinery faucet Xi'An Shaangu Power Co.Ltd(601369) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co.Ltd(300091) ; In the field of solar thermal energy storage, there are two Xizi Jieneng ground molten salt energy storage projects with mature technology, which should be paid attention to.
Risk analysis: market-oriented reform is less than expected; Tackling key problems of new energy storage core technology is less than expected; Economic downturn, "double carbon" target relaxed. main points
