Core view
In the market, affected by the rapid escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Wande a index fluctuated lower in the past five trading days, with electrical equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, non-ferrous metals and public utilities leading the increase. Due to geopolitical reasons, the risk of warming has increased, and the large number of foreign capital outflow of Baijiu, represented by liquor, has declined. Last week, Fenjiu held a double generation meeting. Fenjiu implemented the “four focuses and four insistences” and put forward eight key tasks. In the short term, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) at present, the inventory is the lowest in history, the price is the best in history, the dealer channel profit is the best in history, and the market order is the best in history. From the current situation, the dynamic sales are gratifying. 2022 has a good start and strong certainty. In the medium and long term, the company’s strategic direction remains unchanged + high-end products + national channel goal is clear, which is expected to achieve high-quality development.
Industry trend review
Overall market performance, last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.67% to close at 457342 points, of which the food and beverage industry fell 3.89%, 2.22 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index and ranked 24th among the 28 Shenwan sub industries. In terms of sub sectors, most of the food and beverage sub sectors fell last week, with beer falling the most, by 4.49%, followed by food and beverage (- 3.82%), wine (- 2.54%), meat products (- 2.53%) and yellow rice wine (- 2.46%); Only condiments were on the rise, up 0.65%. In terms of individual stocks, Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (14.11%), Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) (8.49%), Tibet Development Co.Ltd(000752) (8.03), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (6.19%), Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) (5.56%) led the performance.
Industry highlights and important announcements this week
(1) Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) 2 on the evening of February 27, the company disclosed the performance express of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.282 billion yuan, an increase of 16.47% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit was 150 million yuan, a decrease of 37.89% over the same period last year; The basic earnings per share is 1.21 yuan. (2) According to the wine report, on February 25, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) said on the interactive platform that the original wine consumed by the company in selling Luzhou flavor finished wine last year was more than the actual output last year. Among them, the consumption of medium and high-end high-quality wine is still increasing significantly. At the same time, the new capacity projects are implemented step by step, and the new Luzhou flavor capacity will not be surplus; The elegant Baijiu flavor liquor has a high price performance ratio, and the probability will not sell.
Investment advice
1) after the initial adjustment, the Baijiu sector was pessimistic. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , etc. 2) Although the price increase of mass products last year eased the cost pressure, due to the general rise in global commodity prices and the continuous rise in the prices of many raw materials, the cost side pressure is still relatively large. In addition, the current market demand is still weak, and the phenomenon of high inventory in some sectors exists. We believe that the investment opportunities of the whole board still need to wait.
Risk tips: the risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, food safety risk and market style change risk
