In January, the sales volume of electric vehicles made a better start than expected. It is expected to exceed 10 million vehicles worldwide in the whole year, an increase of 65% at the same time. The demand for power + energy storage is nearly 800gwh, an increase of 70% at the same time. In January, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China was 431000, with + 140% / - 19% in the same ring, higher than previously expected. We expect Q1 to exceed 1.1 million, laying a high increase in the whole year, and some car enterprises raise prices. However, the price sensitivity of medium and high-end models is low. Orders have been gradually restored in February, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 6 million (including exports), with an increase of 70% +. In addition, Tesla Shanghai plans to expand production to 2 million, The existing factory has been upgraded to 1 million, further supporting the demand explosion. The sales volume in the United States is expected to double by 1.3 million vehicles in 22 years, and that in Europe is expected to reach 2.8 million vehicles, an increase of 36% at the same time. The global sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to reach 10 million + in 22 years, an increase of 64% at the same time, and there is room for further repair. With the explosion of superimposed energy storage, it is estimated that the global demand for power + energy storage batteries will be 7007500gwh in 22 years, an increase of 70% at the same time.
Upgrade lithium battery technology into an important direction, new trends and opportunities, and strengthen the leading advantages. In the past 22 years, the price of raw materials was high, the cost of lithium battery was under great pressure, and technological innovation was the means to reduce the cost. Focusing on battery energy density, fast charging, safety and cost, Ningde has laid out its layout from two aspects: electrochemical system upgrading and structural innovation. It has deep technical reserves and far-reaching progress, supporting the continuous improvement of subsequent global share. The upgrading of electrochemical system takes the cathode as the core, and the trend of high nickel and lithium ferromanganese is clear; 4680 Tesla 22q1 took the lead in landing and may become the mainstream packaging form in the future. High nickel cathode + silicon carbon cathode + carbon nanotube conductive agent + large cylindrical structural parts + new lithium salt will benefit.
Lithium battery production Q1 is not light in the off-season. Q1 performance is expected to more than double year-on-year, with an annual growth of 70-100%. In February, the industrial production scheduling decreased by 10-20%, and recovered strongly in March, which was higher than that in January. 22q1's leading production scheduling was at least flat month on month, with some companies increasing by 10-20% month on month, and the boom continued. The performance of lithium battery leader Q4 generally exceeded expectations. We expect that the performance of Q1 will remain flat to slightly increase month on month, and double year-on-year. Battery manufacturers generally feedback that the price of lithium carbonate can be borne by battery manufacturers and vehicle enterprises within 500000, which has a limited impact on demand, and the order certainty is still strong.
Investment suggestion: investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the battery link of profit restoration in 2022. The long-term pattern is the best and the barriers are the highest, leading the technological change of the whole industry. The leaders are Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to the second-line Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , The next is the high nickel triple positive ( 68800 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); Once again, it is the global leader that has been in short supply for 22 years: diaphragm ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\), lithium carbonate (focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), etc.
Risk tip: price competition exceeds market expectations, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, declining investment growth and the impact of the epidemic.
