\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
The performance is in line with expectations, and the new material project is expected to start construction, maintaining the "buy" rating
According to the preliminary accounting data, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 26.647 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 103.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 303.45%. Corresponding to Q4 single quarter, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 8.412 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 106.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 223.37%. In 2021, affected by market supply and demand and many other factors, the price of the company's main products increased significantly year-on-year, driving a significant year-on-year increase in performance. The two new material projects of the company's Dezhou base are expected to start construction in 2022. In the long term, Jingzhou base is expected to rebuild a Dezhou base, and the growth can be expected. We increased the profit forecast for 20212023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.254 (+ 2.46), 6.716 (+ 0.25) and 7.395 (+ 442) billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 343 (+ 0.12), 3.18 (+ 0.02) and 3.50 (+ 0.21) yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 10.2, 11.1 and 10.0 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Q4 coal prices remained high, the company's performance fell month on month, and it is optimistic that the company's performance will remain high in 2022
In Q4 of 2021, the prices of most of the company's main products increased month on month. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average price and month on month variation range of Q4 coal and various products are 1210 (+ 32.06%), 2683 (+ 2.47%), 5815 (+ 12.96%), 14051 (- 16.09%), 6994 (+ 9.03%), dmf16202 (+ 0.39%), 12749 (+ 18.64%) yuan / ton of thermal coal, urea, ethylene glycol (- 12.96%), octanol (- 16.09%), acetic acid (+ 9.03%), adipic acid (+ 18.64%). In the later period of Q3, the coal price rose sharply, which slowed down the growth of benefits to a certain extent. However, the company actively promoted the production of new projects and timely adjusted the product structure, realizing a large improvement in business performance. At present, the price of crude oil remains high, while the prices of DMF, urea and adipic acid remain high. We are still optimistic about the company's performance in 2022.
The company held commencement activities for high-end solvent and nylon material projects, and the growth space is expected to be opened in the future
According to qilu.com, on February 25, Shandong Dezhou held a centralized commencement of major projects, and the company's high-end solvent and nylon 66 high-end new material projects were prominently listed. After the high-end solvent project unit is completed and put into operation, it will produce 300000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 300000 tons of methyl ethyl carbonate and 50000 tons of diethyl carbonate. Nylon 66 will build two 40000 t / a units. The two major projects are expected to start in 2022, and the growth space of Dezhou base may be further opened in the future.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc.
