\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
Event: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) released the annual performance express of 2021, and achieved a total operating revenue of 19.514 billion yuan in 2021 (year-on-year + 45%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.158 billion yuan (year-on-year + 45%); Deduct non net profit of 845 million yuan (year-on-year + 39%). 21q4, realizing a total operating revenue of 6.136 billion yuan (year-on-year + 56%); The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 334 million (year-on-year + 13%), and it is expected to deduct non net profit of RMB 234 million (year-on-year – 5%).
Comments:
The non net profit deducted from 21q4 tons remained stable month on month, and the roe increased again throughout the year. The steel structure output of 21q4 company is 961700 tons. Based on this, we calculate that the non net profit deducted per ton of the company is 243 yuan / ton (year-on-year-50 yuan / ton) and – 8 yuan / ton month on month. Therefore, it is judged that the profitability of the company’s core steel structure manufacturing business remains stable in 21q4 month on month. The roe of the company in the past 21 years was 17.88% (year-on-year + 2.87pcts), which has been continuously improved for five consecutive years since 2017, and has reached a record high after the company’s listing in the past 21 years; Our judgment is mainly due to the improvement of the company’s profitability after the improvement of the capacity utilization of the new base.
The certainty of medium-term output growth has increased, and it is judged that the final capacity of the company is more than 6 million tons. Previously, the company’s capacity guideline in the 2020 annual report was 5 million tons. According to the current announcement data, the company’s total capacity in the future has been close to 6 million tons. The certainty of the company’s medium-term output growth is rising, helping the company maintain growth. On the other hand, the core competitive advantage of the company is cost advantage, which mainly comes from scale effect and fine management ability; In the past two years, the company has continued to sign new base investment agreements. In the future, the capacity scale will further open the gap with other enterprises in the same industry, and the competitive advantage is expected to be strengthened. We are optimistic about the company’s capacity of 6 million tons of refined judgment and management.
Extensive participation in the company’s employee stock ownership plan is conducive to long-term and steady development. The company issued the draft of the employee stock ownership plan in January 22. The participants of the stock ownership plan involve the company’s directors, supervisors, senior managers, technical backbone, general manager of the base, factory director and sales personnel. The incentive scope is relatively wide, and there is a three-year lock-in period, which is conducive to the stability of the company’s management team and core business backbone, Favorable to the long-term and steady development of the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Honglu’s core business is to earn steel structure processing fees, and its core moat is scale effect and cost control. In the case of large fluctuations in steel prices in the past 21 years, the profitability of the company remained improved, which further verified the excellent management ability and competitive advantage of the company. The new base construction plan announced by the company since this year has increased the certainty of the company’s medium-term output growth. The employee stock ownership plan helps the company’s long-term steady development, and the company’s medium and long-term competitive advantage is expected to be further strengthened in the future. Maintain the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 of 1.508 billion yuan and 1.751 billion yuan. The current price corresponds to the dynamic P / E ratio of about 16x in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sharp fluctuation of steel price affects the company’s profitability, capacity expansion and utilization rate.
