\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 225 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) )
Core view
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the revenue and net profit increased significantly year-on-year. Recently, the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 152401 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 60.32%; The total profit was 40.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.28%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 20.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.83%. Revenue and net profit have been growing for six consecutive years. In 2021, the company realized 85.178 billion yuan of owner's equity attributable to common shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 21.32% over the beginning of the period; The net assets per share attributable to ordinary shareholders of listed companies were 8.79 yuan / share, an increase of 21.32% over the beginning of the period.
Benefiting from the impact of the sharp rise in coal prices, Q4 net profit hit a record high in a single quarter. According to the data disclosed in the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 was 6.679 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.21%, a record high in single quarter performance. The significant increase in net profit mainly benefited from the sharp rise in the overall price of thermal coal market in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the substantial increase in the company's sales unit price.
In 2021, the production and sales of self-produced coal increased significantly, and the sales volume of trade coal decreased slightly. According to the company's performance forecast in 2021, the company's coal sales volume in 2021 was 232 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.88%; Among them, the sales volume of self-produced coal was 134 million tons (the company's business data in December 2021), and the company achieved 136 million tons of raw coal in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 8.39%; The production and marketing rate reached 98.52%. The growth of the company's self-produced coal sales is mainly due to the strong downstream demand in 2021 and the improvement of capacity utilization, thus increasing the total coal supply and marketing. The sales of trade coal has declined, mainly due to the tight overall coal supply and demand in 2021, and the company's purchase of trade coal has been affected to a certain extent.
The advantage of mining cost results in high gross profit margin, abundant cash flow and high dividend, highlighting the investment value. The mining areas of the company are high-quality thermal coal with high calorific value, with good storage conditions, large mining volume of single well, relatively low comprehensive mining cost, and the gross profit rate per ton of coal is significantly higher than the industry average level. The company has abundant cash flow. In the third quarter report of 2021, the book cash reached 41.9 billion yuan and the asset liability ratio was 37.99%. According to the shareholder return plan released by the company in 2020, the company is expected to maintain a high profit rate in 2021. According to the 40% dividend rate, the dividend is expected to reach more than 8 billion yuan. The stable performance and large proportion of dividends show that the company has long-term investment value.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 209 / 224 / 24.9 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 6.5 / 6.1 / 5.5 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: the macro economy is not as expected, resulting in a significant reduction in coal demand, a significant decline in coal prices, safety production accidents and a rapid increase in coal production capacity.
