Strategic view:
The market rebound “rises and cherishes”, and it is difficult to have an obvious “cross year market”. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63% last week, which continued to meet our expectations. In fact, from November to December, we continuously issued documents and continuously emphasized the logic of “policy bottom” of a shares, which effectively grasped the obvious rebound of A-Shares in this round. The traceable reports include: “spring agitation” starts, growth “sails” “If the” policy end “is realized, the market will rebound” and “in-depth discussion on the allocation value of” meta universe “, or will lead the growth style to meet the” spring breeze “, etc.
In this issue, we plan to further sort out the “policy bottom” style and dominant industries in recent 15 years, and try to explore the current direction of “style rotation” and “industry allocation” in combination with factors such as mood and valuation.
Looking back at history, the “policy bottom” gave birth to the “valuation bottom”, forming a market rebound period of 1 ~ 4 months. We maintain this round of market rebound rather than “reversal”. Based on three factors, it is expected that the rebound will last for about 2 months, so it is difficult to have an obvious “cross year market”. Then the market may make periodic adjustment, so it is suggested to reduce positions at high prices!
We should strengthen the style of small and medium-sized market. Mainly based on: 1) after the “policy bottom”, the probability of medium and small cap dominance is high and the average increase is large; 2) The valuation of large cap stocks remains high, and the valuation of small and medium cap stocks is relatively reasonable; 3) The concentration of funds tends to decline.
Growth and finance are dominant, with four types of allocation. Looking back at the five rounds of “policy bottom” market, the winning rate of growth and cycle is the highest, both at 60%. The average increase order is: Finance (20%) > growth (19%) > traditional consumption (18) > cycle (17%).
It is suggested to invest in four categories: first, maintain optimistic [cycle with growth attribute]; Second, emphasize the scientific and technological transformation attribute of the meta universe, and firm the layout in combination with the “growth dominant” logic under the policy bottom market; Third, industries with superior winning rate and return rate under the policy bottom Market (short speculation); fourth, gradually add consumer varieties with defensive attributes.
In terms of specific configuration in December, combined with the industry rotation “five dimensions” scoring system, the first choice is: power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, chemical industry and electronic semiconductor; Second choice: nonferrous metals (rare metals), machinery and communications, and securities companies.
Risk tip: the policy transmission is slow, and the positive cycle of a new round of internal drive is “interrupted”.
