\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 666 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual performance express. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue was 29.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.1%.
The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 of 21 hit a record high. On a quarterly basis, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from Q1 to Q4 in 2021 was 540 million yuan, 510 million yuan, 710 million yuan and 1.15 billion yuan respectively, of which the profit of Q4 in a single quarter increased by 236.4% year-on-year and 62.4% month on month, the best level in history.
In the 21st year, the production and sales of Q4 gradually recovered, and the selling price rose sharply. In terms of production and marketing, the company achieved 28.85 million tons of raw coal in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; Achieved self owned commercial coal sales / 26.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%; By quarter, the production and sales of Q1 ~ Q4 were 7.83 million tons / 7.28 million tons, 7.03 million tons / 6.5 million tons, 6.85 million tons / 6.16 million tons and 7.14 million tons / 6.65 million tons respectively. The coal production and sales volume has gradually recovered in the fourth quarter. In terms of selling price, the company’s comprehensive selling price of commercial coal was 1056 yuan / ton in 2021, up 39.3% year-on-year; In terms of quarters, the selling prices of Q1 ~ Q4 were 733 yuan / ton, 792 yuan / ton, 912 yuan / ton and 1235 yuan / ton respectively. The coal selling price of the company reached a new high in the fourth quarter. The selling price in the fourth quarter increased by 35.3% month on month and 141% year-on-year. In terms of cost, the company’s sales cost of commercial coal in 2021 was 734 yuan / ton, and the Q1 ~ Q4 costs were 585 yuan / ton, 657 yuan / ton, 745 yuan / ton and 962 yuan / ton respectively.
The price of Q1 main coke long-term association was flat month on month in 22 years, and the performance is worth looking forward to. Affected by the guarantee of power coal supply, the supply of coking clean coal such as coal gas coal and lean coal in Shaanxi, Shanxi and other regions has decreased significantly; The Australian coal problem has not been solved. Due to the epidemic situation and limited transportation capacity, the import supply of Mongolian coal is limited, the overall supply of coking coal is facing contraction pressure, the tight supply situation of coking coal market is difficult to change, the main coke is particularly strong, and the price remains high. The company is the largest producer and supplier of low sulfur and high-quality main coking coal in China. The coal type is mainly high-quality main coking coal with strong bargaining power. According to the company’s interactive platform, the price of the company’s main coking coal long-term association is basically the same as Q4 in 2021. According to wind data, as of February 28, the sector price of Henan Pingdingshan main coke car was 2960 yuan / ton, which was consistent with Q4 in 2021.
High dividends highlight investment value. In February 2020, the company issued the dividend return plan for shareholders from 2019 to 2021. The company promised to distribute dividends in cash under the condition of profits in the current year and positive accumulated undistributed profits. The profit distributed in cash every year shall not be less than 60% of the distributable profits in the consolidated statements realized in the current year, and the dividend per share shall not be less than 0.25 yuan. Considering the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.92 billion yuan in 2021, according to the calculation of dividend at the lowest proportion of 60%, the dividend is expected to be about 1.75 billion yuan and the dividend rate is as high as 5.96% (based on the closing price on February 28, 2022).
Investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.92 billion yuan, 6.12 billion yuan and 7.13 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 10.1, 4.8 and 4.1 respectively. As the leader of coking coal in central and southern China, the company has stable downstream users and good geographical location conditions. In addition, the effectiveness of the company’s “clean coal strategy” and “cost reduction and quality improvement” has gradually emerged, laying a solid foundation for the company’s high-quality development. Considering the company’s high and stable dividend plan, the company maintains the rating of “holdings increase”.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply; Decline in clean coal production
