Key investment points:
Since late September, the market divergence has increased. We have continued to release “win in late autumn series” to see more in the fourth quarter. Since October, we have seen more logical verification, and the market has gradually realized.
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held. From a strategic perspective, how to see its impact on a shares?
Clue 1: steady growth link bar
The meeting pointed out that “while fully affirming the achievements, we must see that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations.” The meeting demanded that “next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced.”
It can be seen that the steady growth signal is further clarified. Combined with the research and judgment of the macro group, the policy force is appropriately advanced, the probability of economic success is high, and the annual economic growth may show a Nike trend.
Mapping to equity, standing at the present, experienced Baijiu repair and growth led, the market ushered in third nodes, that is, undervalued value will grow with steady growth force to start the stick, pay attention to banks, securities dealers, real estate chain.
Clue 2: research and judgment of next year’s income
The meeting pointed out that “we must adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, adjust policies and promote reform, grasp the timing and efficiency, and adhere to standing first and then breaking, steady and steady.”
Mapping to equity and looking forward to 2022, with steady growth, we believe that there is a high probability that residual liquidity will continue to improve. In other words, the probability of Shanghai stock index in 2022 will rise from the bottom area in 2021. Further combined with the yield distribution under different market characteristics, we expect that the yield of equity mutual funds in 2022 will remain significantly differentiated, and the overall yield or marginal improvement compared with this year.
Clue 3: focus on growth and differentiation
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises.
Mapping to equity, we should pay attention to growth differentiation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. First, under the background of structural bull market, significant differentiation within growth is a normal phenomenon. Take March 2020 to March 2021 as an example, the yields of semiconductors and new energy, which also have medium-term prosperity support, are significantly differentiated. Second, combined with the deductive laws of the bull market of semiconductor structure in 2019, the bull market of Mao plate structure in 2020 and the bull market of new energy structure in 2021, we believe that one thing is that the boom is the core, the other is that the valuation level and fund position will affect the follow-up space, and the structural bull market will often switch at the end of the third year and the beginning of the year. Looking forward to 2022, taking into account the industrial boom, valuation level, fund position and other factors, we believe that the new growth outlet focuses on the strong chain supplement represented by specialized Texin and semiconductors.
Risk tip: performance growth is lower than expected; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations.
