Investment summary:
A shares rose day after day in the second week of December, continued to rise after falling in the medium term, and the growth enterprise market rose strongly. The largest indexes in the week were Shanghai 180, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, China 100, Shanghai 50 and other indexes. The indexes with small increase during the week were Chuang growth, gem composite, national securities 2000 and other indexes.
Since the beginning of the year, the top indexes are Chuang growth, Guozheng 2000, gem 50, gem composite and so on. The performance of gem and China Securities 2000 remained ahead.
This week, northbound funds generally showed a net inflow, with a net purchase of foreign capital of 48.834 billion yuan, and a net purchase of 21.656 billion yuan on December 9, breaking through 20 billion yuan for the third time in history.
In this week’s global macroeconomic data, China’s CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year in November, up 1.5% from the previous value, and rose above 2% for the first time in 14 months; PPI increased by 12.9% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 13.5%,
1. Core research: global mutation virus and its impact on monetary policy and policy
There were 606183 newly confirmed cases and 6915 new deaths in a single day in the world. The United States, Britain, France, Germany and Russia are the five countries with the largest number of newly confirmed cases. With the large-scale spread of the mutant strain “Omicron”, South Africa officially entered the fourth wave peak of covid-19 epidemic.
Different from the inflation situation, the central banks of major countries in the world are also divided: the Central Bank of China has maintained a partial dove monetary policy under low inflation expectations, and the people’s Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). In December 2021, the Politburo working meeting conveyed relatively loose policy guidelines, stabilized the macro-economic market, kept the economic operation within a reasonable range, and the real estate was reasonably supported: in the fourth quarter, the reasonable loans for China’s real estate were met.
2. Overseas observation: icinsights released its outlook for 2022: the global semiconductor industry continues to be booming
Icinsights discusses the world and regional GDP environment and compares it with the semiconductor market environment. Overall, in 2021, the growth rate of global IC market reached 24%, significantly exceeding the growth rate of global GDP by 5%, showing strong resilience. Overall, the top three semiconductor manufacturers have changed significantly. Samsung has replaced Intel as the first. In addition, it also includes some prospects such as memory, flash memory and microprocessor.
3 meso observation: the wave of IGBT localization substitution is rising:
Byd Company Limited(002594) has officially placed an order for Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) vehicle specification IGBT, with an order amount of 100 million yuan. Not only Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , but also Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) and other manufacturers have obtained orders. China Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Jilin Sino-Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600360) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) already has the production capacity of medium and low voltage IGBT products, while there are only Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) and Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) Chinese manufacturers with the production capacity of high voltage IGBT chips. This paragraph combs the advantages and disadvantages of IGBT technology application in detail, comprehensively combs the products of major IGBT manufacturers in China, and compares the financial situation of IGBT manufacturers.
Investment strategy: at present, the risk of global new variant virus spreading is spreading, and the global marginal recession is expected to reappear. The Central Bank of China has maintained a dove biased monetary policy under low inflation expectations. The Politburo working meeting in December after the RRR reduction conveyed relatively loose policy guidelines, stabilized the macro-economic market, maintained the economic operation within a reasonable range, and real estate is expected to receive reasonable support. In terms of track, the global semiconductor industry continues to be booming, the growth rate of IC market has reached 24%, and the emerging technology track continues to maintain a high boom. For example, the wave of IGBT localization substitution drives Chinese manufacturers to continue to expand, and advanced manufacturing industries such as new energy, semiconductor and new materials will continue to maintain high growth expectations in the future.
Risk enhancement: Overseas liquidity risk and China’s monetary policy tightening risk
