Last week (12.6-12.10), the stock index opened higher, the Shanghai index rose 1.63% to close at 3666.3 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to close at 15111.56 points, the small and medium-sized 100 rose 2.82%, and the gem index fell 0.34%; In terms of industry sectors, leisure services, food and beverage and household appliances led the increase; In terms of theme concepts, Lianban index, yellow rice wine index and IP traffic realization index ranked first in terms of growth; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.208 billion yuan, with the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rising by 2.91% over the previous week, including 10.36% in Shanghai stock market and 2.35% in Shenzhen stock market; In terms of style, large cap stocks have a comparative advantage, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 4.10% and China Stock Exchange 500 rose 0.06%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3704, up 0.02%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil rose 8.66%, Comex gold fell 0.04%, Nanhua iron ore index rose 4.12% and DCE coking coal rose 1.52%.
The next year’s market is expected to open, and the market index may rise. Last week, the CSI 300 index rose 3.14%, breaking through the triangular adjustment range, and has determined the short-term upward trend. However, the trend of gem index is relatively low. We expect that the market blue chip market will continue to perform in the next 1-2 months. From the historical law, from December to January of the next year, the market usually has a cross year market, and the index performs better. The reason behind this is, At the end of the year and the beginning of the year: (1) China is in an intensive period of major conferences, and the market’s expectations of good policies are rising; (2) commercial banks have more credit, the market liquidity is usually good, and the capital interest rate tends to fall; (3) The market is temporarily in the vacuum period of economic data and performance data, and the impact of performance on the index has subsided, but the boosting effect of capital and emotion on the index is heating up. Near the end of the year, the range of market shocks tends to converge first and then expand. It is expected that this year’s market index will gradually get out of the cross-year market driven by capital and emotion. As a popularity indicator, securities companies may take the lead The new energy and science and technology sectors with high prosperity are expected to relay. Subsequently, as the market enters the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the impact of the performance end on the index will gradually increase.
The liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and the medium and long-term running water continues to flow in. The central economic work conference laid the tone for next year’s macroeconomic policy. The central economic work conference was held earlier, with only 4800 words in the full text. The difficulties were put in the first part, indicating the urgency of the current economic policy. Under the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, the meeting called for “steady economic work next year, seeking progress while maintaining stability, and appropriate policy development”. In terms of monetary policy, the meeting required: “resolutely curb the new implicit debt of local governments; a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity; and increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development”. At present, the market pays more attention to liquidity than performance and valuation. Therefore, we believe that the A-share market index is easy to go up and difficult to go down next year, and we can actively layout the cross-year market. Medium and large cap stocks represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have the momentum of upward repair in the near future, and there are still opportunities for excess returns in follow-up small cap stocks, science and technology plates and new energy plates. The meeting “once again stressed that housing should not be fried, and the city should implement policies to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry”. We expect that strict real estate regulation is the keynote. From the perspective of large asset allocation, the relocation of Chinese residents’ assets from real estate and bank financial management to the capital market continues, and the inflow of medium and long-term living water promotes the continuous upward movement of the A-share market.
Investment suggestion: the rapid upward period of commodity prices has passed, and China’s economy has basically recovered to the pre epidemic level. It is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and marginal weakening of economic prosperity in the fourth quarter, At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) the financial sector. At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors, and there is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector with undervalued value, especially in the securities sector. (2) Countercyclical sector. In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the countercyclical sector may perform under macroeconomic cross cyclical regulation. (3) the sector with booming production and sales. The current performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation and computers. (4) Downstream consumer sector. It is expected that the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will converge in the future, and the consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the next half year. Pay attention to the downstream consumer sector with price increase expectations, such as food and beverage.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets and deterioration of China US relations.
