1.1 the index entered the range and fluctuated
The market size differentiation is obvious. The small and medium-sized indexes represented by gem, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose, while the large indexes represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50 entered adjustment
The Shanghai index continued to fluctuate between 3300 and 3700 in 2021.
1.2 drive logic changes
After 2020, the main body of funds in the market will become funds. With the slowdown in the pressure drop of inter-bank structured deposits, the issuance scale of equity funds has also slowed down.
Fund trading behavior has changed from incremental behavior to stock behavior. The trading behavior changes from embracing group stocks to looking for incremental game stocks.
2.1 top down performance judgment
Generally speaking, there is a correlation between the revenue growth of listed companies and the nominal GDP growth. In addition to the revenue growth, the net profit growth is also related to the changes of CPI and PPI.
After 2017, with the promotion of supply side structural reform, the changes of CPI and PPI are no longer dominated by demand. The lower fluctuation of CPI basically converges with the changes of nominal GDP, income growth and net profit growth. The setback of supply after the epidemic and a new round of supply regulation under the dual carbon target have made PPI higher, while CPI remains low, making the growth rate of net profit in 2022 or 8%, which is close to the growth rate of nominal GDP.
2.2 bottom up performance judgment
Based on the profit growth rate unanimously expected by analysts, and adjusted according to the actual level and expected level of the year. The adjusted forecast growth rate of Shanghai stock index is 7.9%, and all A-Shares are less than 9.3%.
Based on top-down and bottom-up judgment, we believe that the net profit growth of Shanghai stock index may be about 8% in 2022.
