\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.9%. 4q21 achieved a revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 197 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 82.3%.
Key points supporting rating
Channel expansion + large volume of new products + move before the Spring Festival helped the rapid growth of revenue, and non recurring profits and losses thickened profits. (1) In 2021, the company’s revenue was + 40.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 46.9% year-on-year; 4q21 revenue + 54.9% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent company + 82.3% year-on-year. We believe that the company’s channel expansion + product expansion strategy has achieved remarkable results. The superposition of the move before the Spring Festival has boosted the significant growth of 4q21 revenue. At the same time, the investment income obtained from holding and disposing of trading financial assets has made a great contribution to non recurring profits and losses, resulting in a significant increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company. (2) In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 44.4%, a year-on-year increase of -2.2pct. If excluding the change of freight, the gross profit margin of the company will increase by 0.6pct under the comparable caliber. (3) In 2021, the company’s sales expense ratio was 19.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4pct, mainly due to the company’s increased investment in brand building and promotion activities after its successful listing; The management expense ratio was 3.6%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.1pct.
Non energy drinks increased in large quantities, and regions outside Guangdong Province continued high growth. (1) In terms of products, the revenue of energy drinks in 2021 was 6.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.3%, accounting for 94.7%; The revenue of non energy drinks was 372 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.2%, accounting for 5.3%. 4q21 energy beverage revenue increased by + 44.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate of non energy beverage revenue increased by + 267.1% year-on-year. We judge that the significant increase in non energy beverage revenue is related to the large volume of new products such as Dongpeng Jiaxi and Dongpeng Daka. (2) In terms of sales area, the regional revenue of Guangdong in 2021 was 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.7%; The national regional (non provincial) income was 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 53.6%; The revenue from direct and online channels was 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.3%. The market in Guangdong Province maintained rapid growth, the national region continued to grow at a high speed, and the proportion of revenue continued to increase.
Outlook: the product matrix is gradually enriched, the national market continues to expand, and the performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2022. (1) Lock the energy drink track and build a “Dongpeng energy +” product matrix. The scale of the functional beverage industry continues to grow, and the company’s products have differentiated competitive advantages. The continuous and large volume of 500ml gold bottles will provide steady support for performance growth. In addition, the company has successively developed products such as big coffee, 0 sugar special drink, Jiaxi and taneng. The product matrix is gradually enriched and the competitive boundary is expanded. In 2022, the company also plans to launch light functional drinks and bubble functional drinks, and the new products are expected to bring performance increment. (2) Implement differentiated sales strategy and accelerate the process of nationalization. In the base market of Guangdong, the company has carried out intensive cultivation in all channels and expanded consumer groups to ensure rapid growth. In the national market, the blank area is still large. The company accelerates the process of market expansion and strives to improve the overall market rate of products. The national market is expected to continue its high growth rate. (3) Based on the above, we believe that the Growth Logic of the company is clear and we are optimistic about achieving rapid growth in 2022.
Valuation
According to the annual report, we revised the previous profit forecast and estimated that the EPS in 22-24 years would be 3.74, 4.66 and 5.76 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.5%, + 24.4% and + 23.7%, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
New product promotion and market development were not as expected, and the industry competition intensified.
