\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Company performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, recorded a net profit of 1.33 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%, net profit after deduction of non-profit was 1.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, and EPS was 1.41 yuan. Quarterly, Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy + 23.0%, with a loss of about 8 million yuan. The growth of the company’s revenue was better than our expectation, and the loss of Q4 net profit was mainly due to the provision for bad debts.
The market share of range hood and gas stove products is leading, and the market share of new products is also increasing rapidly: (1) according to the data of Aowei report, the industry concentration of traditional products is further improved. In 2021, the offline market share of the company’s range hood and gas stove retail market is 30.5% and 29.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3 and 3.5 percentage points respectively, The retail sales of kitchen electric packages in the online market accounted for 30.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points, ranking first in the industry; (2) The company’s new products continued to develop, and the market share increased rapidly. In 2021, the market share of the company’s integrated steaming and baking machine increased by 2.9 percentage points to 34.8% year-on-year, and the market share of embedded dishwasher increased by 8 percentage points to 17.5% year-on-year, ranking second in the industry.
The centralized provision for bad debts affects the short-term net profit performance: affected by the real estate policy, in the second half of 2021, some customers of the company’s fine decoration business defaulted on due commercial acceptance bills. The company comprehensively considered the provision of about 710 million yuan, including about 630 million yuan for Evergrande group and its member enterprises and about 80 million yuan for other customers, which affected the net profit performance of 21q4 and 2021, If we do not consider the impact of bad debt provision, we estimate that the actual net profit of the company in 2021 will increase by 23.1% year-on-year, and the net profit of Q4 will increase by 30.5% year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we predict that the net profit of the company in 2022 and 2023 will be 2.21 billion yuan and 2.45 billion yuan respectively, yoy will be + 65.5% and + 11.1% respectively, EPS will be 2.3 and 2.6 yuan respectively, and the dynamic PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 14x and 13X respectively. Although the provision for bad debts will affect the short-term performance, the main business still maintains good growth, the market share of new products continues to increase, and the valuation is not high, We give a rating of “interval operation”.
Risk tip: the real estate boom continues to decline; Rising prices of raw materials; New product sales growth expectation
