Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: building materials, securities companies, military industry, electrical equipment and electronics
Standard configuration: Food and beverage, media, communication, steel, computer, automobile, medicine, machinery, banking, non-ferrous metals, real estate, mining, light industry, chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
Low allocation: leisure service and transportation
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio since the beginning of the year is 65.76%, which is 66.35% relative to the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
Valuation: CSI 300iape is close to the 60th percentile, and CSI 300pb is above the 30th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is close to the 50th percentile, Shanghai Pb is close to the 30th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is above the 60th percentile, and Shanghai 50pb is close to the 40th percentile line. IAPE on GEM is close to the 90th percentile, and Pb on GEM is close to the 90th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry rose more or fell less, with leisure services, food and beverage, household appliances, media and building materials among the top gainers.
Combined with Pb and expected roe, photovoltaic, vaccine, phosphorus chemical industry, innovative drugs, new energy, Internet of things, specialized and special new sectors have better cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, the prosperity of photovoltaic, biological vaccine, new energy, aerospace equipment, lithium battery, cro and other sectors is better.
Money & Interest Rate: the RRR reduction is intended to stabilize growth, and the central economic work conference emphasizes targeted liquidity support.
upper reaches
Crude oil prices rebounded, the largest increase in nearly three months
The coal price continues to run smoothly and the double coke is stable
Lithium prices continued to rise and precious metal prices gradually stabilized
The total iron ore shipments increased and the inventory reached an all-time high
middle reaches
Steel prices may be supported in the short term
Policies help the long-term development of photovoltaic industry
Cement prices are under pressure, and glass supply and demand are both weak
Yellow phosphorus prices continued to rise and pure benzene prices rose
High fluctuation of shipping freight rate
downstream
The policy direction of the real estate industry is warming
The export of household appliances increased year-on-year, and the household appliance sector performed well
Baijiu plate sentiment high
TMT
Electronics: global semiconductor sales increased significantly, and the volume of goods transferred out of iPhone
Computer: digital transformation promotes the upgrading of traditional industries
Media: the new year’s file is warmed up, and Baidu releases yuanuniverse products
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic failure to meet expectations, the risk of monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, the risk of regulatory policy exceeding expectations, the risk of industry prosperity failing to meet expectations, and the risk of stagflation
