Macroeconomic: in terms of economic growth, the meso production index was stable last week. In terms of inflation, the CPI in November was 2.3% year-on-year, the market expectation was 2.5%, and the previous value was 1.5%; 0.4% month on month. In November, the PPI was 12.9% year-on-year, the market expected 12%, and the previous value was 13.5%; 0% month on month. In terms of liquidity, the central bank recovered 180 billion yuan last week, and the money market capital interest rate decreased
Equity market: export growth recorded 22% in November, and foreign demand remained strong. Financial data structure and CPI breakdown data show that domestic demand continues to be weak. We believe that from the reading point of view, the third quarter or the worst month on month economic growth; From the perspective of demand, it is difficult to confirm that domestic demand will enter the channel of trend improvement. In terms of policies, the economic work conference set the tone to stabilize the macro-economic market, and the phased steady growth trend of policies was clear; At the same time, it also made it clear that in the process of policy implementation, "we should not turn a protracted war into a surprise war" and prevent "decomposition fallacy and synthesis fallacy". Considering the strength of demand side policies and the correction of structural policies, we believe that economic growth may gradually stabilize in 2022. In terms of rhythm, we need to continue to pay attention to the implementation of policies.
Fixed income market: it is suggested to adjust the duration strategy to neutral and cautious, and the short end is better than the medium and long end in structure, mainly to obtain leverage income. Based on the judgment of the policy tone of the central economic work conference, unless we see signs that the policy adjustments in real estate, hidden bonds and other fields deviate from the medium and long-term framework, we tend to think that the probability of continued significant upward rise of bond yields next year is low, and there are still opportunities for allocation and trading. In terms of rhythm, considering the strong demand for policy strength in advance and realizing a stable start of the economy, the bond market may face disturbance in the short term
