Main points:
In the short term, the market will be dominated by shock trend. In the near future, liquidity expectations are loose, the science and technology growth sector rebounds, and there are structural opportunities.
From the perspective of liquidity indicators, the recent liquidity is neutral and loose. The central economic work conference faced the triple pressure, steady growth became the main theme, and the RRR reduction was implemented as scheduled. It is expected that the overall monetary policy will be loose in the future, and the credit may also be relaxed. M2 is higher than M1 year on year; Shibor short-term interest rate fluctuates at normal level; LPR remained unchanged for 19 consecutive months. Last week, the shares of newly established partial equity funds fell, and the overall strength in the third quarter was stronger than that in the second quarter; The latest financial balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1842.3 billion yuan, which was relatively stable; In terms of social finance, new RMB loans rebounded in November; Recently, A-share IPO Financing rose and fell. The net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 48.834 billion yuan, a record high; The net inflow of southbound funds in the past week was 11.766 billion yuan.
Judging from the market sentiment indicators, the recent sentiment is acceptable. The number of strong stocks in the upper part of mA20 and long positions fell back to the middle, the number of trading stocks was near the average, and the height of the connecting board rose and fell; Under the expectation of RRR easing monetary policy, market sentiment is expected to remain in a balanced position.
From the perspective of market valuation, the overall valuation of the two cities is still in a reasonable range. From the perspective of risk premium indicators, with the recent weak adjustment of the market, the risk premiums of CSI 300 and CSI 500 fluctuate near the average. The two types of risk premium indicators are similar. In terms of overall style, the small and medium-sized market is slightly stronger than the market.
In terms of profit, the growth rate of A-share profit in the third quarter of this year continued to fall compared with the second quarter. Since this year, the profitability of the cycle style is much stronger than that of other styles, which matches the pro cycle market, and fell greatly in the third quarter. The growth style is the second, and the growth rate fell slightly in the third quarter, so the growth style has advantages.
Investment suggestions:
Considering the recent performance, valuation and profitability of the industry, we are optimistic about the recent focus: the central economic work conference releases the signal of stable growth, and the consumption sectors such as food and beverage and household appliances are strong again under the background of consumption recovery. After preliminary adjustment, the valuation is reasonable, and the participation of relevant sectors is cost-effective. In the long term, we continue to be optimistic about the main line of new energy. The traditional production capacity is difficult to release due to the impact of environmental protection policies. New energy meets the carbon neutralization policy and the future energy development direction. We are optimistic about the middle reaches of electrical equipment related industries, and we can continue to pay attention to the downstream new energy vehicles. Benefiting from the boost of high-tech themes by the opening of the Beijing stock exchange, the electronics and semiconductor industries have rebounded continuously recently. Under the cross year market expectation, we can continue to pay attention to the growth industries.
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation is repeated, the economic data is less than expected, the friction between China and the United States is intensified, the impact of the instability of the global financial environment, and the financial report data is less than expected.
