Macro: the conference set the tone for next year with the word "stable", and the focus of economic development next year is more inclined to "stable growth". The announcement of the meeting transformed the previous expression of "maintaining continuity, stability and sustainability" into "making progress while maintaining stability", and proposed that "all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy", so as to compact the responsibility of local governments at all levels for "stabilizing the economy and stabilizing growth". In terms of building a new development pattern, the meeting focused more on expanding domestic demand and supply side reform, put forward that the supply side reform "focuses on unblocking China's great cycle" and "breaking through the blocking point of supply constraints", and stressed the implementation of the "strategy of expanding domestic demand". From the perspective of the "troika", investment and consumption are the focus of expanding domestic demand. Next year's "stable credit" is expected to work. Scientifically promote the "transformation of energy structure" to ensure energy supply.
Fixed income: the "first wave" of policy may be a good opportunity for allocation. From the perspective of bond market, the central economic work conference: the tone of steady growth is more clear, but there is no obvious "breakthrough" description at the level of specific measures. In view of some problems in the second half of 2021, there are clear corrections in the direction in order to "stabilize the word" in 2022. On the whole, the tone is very clear and the measures are nothing new. We tend to think that the "first wave" policy of the new year lacks traditional cooperation, and the policy attribute is still "wide currency" greater than "wide credit"; However, due to the learning effect of low market fluctuation in 2021 and the expectation of limited upward risk of interest rate, investors may adopt the strategy of early allocation and early return; The trend of economy from low to high is obvious, the environment in the second half of the year is not optimistic, and there is still uncertainty about the acceleration of overseas tightening and the "second wave" of Chinese policy in the middle of the year. The first wave of force is expected to be stronger than the actual situation. Instead, it may be configured at two levels. We suggest to adopt the strategy of configuration first and observation later.
Strategy: in addition to setting the economic tone for the coming year, the central economic work conference also plays an important guiding role in the direction of stock market investment. We understand that the key word of 2022 is "science and technology, green development", which is in line with the investment main line of our annual strategy "science and technology breakthrough". From the perspective of economic setting, next year will be stable, which is in line with the positioning of loose policy in the late stage of short cycle recession. The economy is entrusted but not promoted. We adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation". The space for value blue chip repair is limited, which plays a more "platform" and stabilizing the market valuation center. From the historical summary, the excess return of TMT in the recession easing stage is close to 10%, which also meets the characteristics of betting high odds in the liquidity easing market. According to the experience of Japan's transformation in the 1970s, when the economy changes from heavy chemical industry to high-end manufacturing structure, it is inseparable from the guidance of policies on production factors. The meeting also clearly guided financial institutions to support scientific and technological innovation and green development. Accelerate digital reform and promote the upgrading of traditional industries. A number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects have been launched to stimulate the emergence of a large number of "specialized, special and new" enterprises. In the early stage, we put forward the proposition of "moving towards maturity and the rise of the backbone". From the perspective of industrial chain, the growth of the middle reaches should be focused on.
Quantification: BOC's quantification team quantitatively calculated and summarized the performance of the A-share market one week, two weeks and one month after the central economic work conference. The specific conclusions are as follows: 1) at the index level, from 2005 to 2013, only 44% of the returns of CSI 300 and CSI 500 were positive; Between 2014 and 2020, there is a 71% probability of positive returns between CSI 300 and CSI 500; During 2014-2020, the overall performance of CSI 300 is slightly better than that of CSI 500. 2) At the industry level, the median interval rate of return of most industries is positive one week and one month after the meeting, and the probability of positive interval rate of return is significantly greater than 50%.
Risk warning: the duration of covid-19 epidemic is uncontrollable; Overseas inflation continued to exceed expectations; Geopolitical risks.
