Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973)
The company is a leader in China's frozen baking industry and has the first mover advantage: the company is a large joint-stock listed enterprise integrating the R & D, production and sales of baked food raw materials and frozen baked food. Since its establishment in 2000, the main products are butter, fruit products and other baking raw materials; On April 15, 2021, the company landed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange and became the "first share of frozen baked food", with a market value of more than 20 billion. The operating revenue of 2021q3 company was 1.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.39%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.47%. The overall operation of the company is good, with outstanding core business. The main business accounts for more than 99% in recent three years.
Consumption upgrading drives the development of baking industry: China has a rich variety of baking products, which can be divided into three categories: pastry, bread and cake. With China's economic development, the improvement of people's living standards, changes in lifestyle and consumption structure, China's bakery has ushered in a period of great development. Consumers are more and more keen to buy healthy, nutritious and convenient bakery food. The bakery industry presents a good trend of healthy, rapid and sustainable development.
"Product innovation + large single product strategy" enables the rapid growth of frozen baking: the company adopts the large single product strategy for frozen baking food, and the revenue of 20h1 core single product has reached 67.5%, forming a scale advantage. The company continues to innovate. Since 2013, the company has successively launched core single products such as tarts, doughnuts, egg yolk pastry and cassava. The gross profit margin of doughnuts and cassava is higher than the average of frozen baked foods. In 2021h1, the volume of cassava exceeds that of tarts and becomes the largest single product of the company. According to channel feedback, there are many sub categories of frozen cake, and there is room to develop to 1 billion in the future. With the upgrading of frozen cake product structure and capacity expansion, the frozen baking business is expected to continue to increase.
Strong R & D strength, channels and services build a moat: the company has strong technical R & D strength. By the end of 2020, the company has 126 technical R & D personnel and formed 72 technical patent achievements. In terms of channels, the company has established a sales model dominated by distribution and supplemented by direct sales. The marketing network is spread all over 351 cities in China, with more than 1800 dealers cooperating with the company, more than 380 direct sales customers and more than 50000 end customers. The direct selling customers of the company are mainly large chain bakeries, supermarkets, restaurants and other customers, including well-known chain bakeries such as happy pastry, weiduomei and Haolilai, large supermarkets such as Wal Mart and HEMA fresh food, as well as chain catering brands such as Haidilao, haokelai and. Through the marketing network with wide distribution and diversified channels, the company goes deep into the terminal service mode, which is efficient and reliable Directly understand the actual needs of customers and realize the two wheel drive of channels and services.
Profit forecast and valuation of the company: we predict that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2731, 3.533 and 4.362 billion respectively, and EPS will be RMB 168, 2.26 and 2.86 respectively. According to the company's stock price of RMB 137.8, the corresponding P / E ratios will be 82.1 times, 61.0 times and 48.1 times respectively. Considering that the company is in a leading position in the subdivided industry and has high growth potential, Give "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips: food safety risk, raw material price fluctuation risk and consumption demand decline risk caused by macro environment change, etc.
