Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973)
Summary of this issue:
For Ka in the short term and catering in the long term, the core is baking. Cassava single products are still limited in Sam's shop. With the improvement of the company's production capacity, cassava single products will continue to be in large quantities. Swiss rolls have become the second best-selling item in Sam's shop, and mousse cakes, croissants and other categories are also expected to become large items. In the short term, category extension and large single products continue to drive the growth of Ka channel. Catering channel is the strategic focus in the future. The Growth Logic of catering comes from the trillion level track of catering, and there is a huge space for development. The company's small volume of catering channels is mainly due to its previous lack of staffing, product support and customer resources. At present, the company has established a separate business department to strengthen personnel allocation and product development capacity, and strive to break through the catering Ka channel first. The penetration rate of baking channel is still low and there is room for growth. The company's penetration rate in bakery channels is low, and the proportion of frozen semi-finished products used in bakery stores is relatively low. The company's cake and Danish products are extended in the baking channel, and mousse cake is also expected to become an explosive point. Baking channels still have room to sink.
Baking has technical barriers and the company has a first mover advantage. There are certain technical barriers in the baking industry, mainly reflected in product formula and mass production process. The company has a large investment in R & D, and the competition for old products is becoming increasingly fierce. The company has invested a lot in R & D to seek a breakthrough in categories. Large single product strategy, large-scale production, the company has scale effect. With the improvement of human efficiency, management will also have scale effect. The management has strong motivation, clear strategy and positive progress. The company attaches importance to the construction of sales team and has strong sales service ability. In addition to assisting the dealer management, the salesperson should also maintain old customers and develop new customers. The service of the sales team enhances the stickiness of customers. Although the entry barrier of baking industry is not high, the company has comprehensive competitive advantages, and the market share is expected to be further improved.
Actively build frozen baking capacity and improve its own logistics system. In the short term, the company's Henan and Zhejiang factories will ensure the supply of frozen baking capacity. In the future, the company will also expand its production base to cover central China, Southwest China and other regions and improve the production capacity layout. The freeze baking industry has high requirements for cold chain logistics, especially for mousse cake, Danish and other products. The company's logistics system can not only ensure product stability, but also form scale effect and dilute internal costs.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the frozen baked food industry is in the early stage of development, with low penetration rate of frozen semi-finished products and large market space. The company's products and channels are double driven, and diversified channels are conducive to seizing more incremental markets. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 21-23 years will be 1.63/2.08/3.11 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 83.01/65.09/43.61 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
Stock price catalyst: product price increase; The price of raw materials decreased; Performance exceeds expectations, etc.
Risk factors: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; Capacity expansion is less than expected; Food safety accidents.
