Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) (300757)
Key investment points
The company is a leader in high-end automation equipment. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the past five years is about 83%
The company's main business is automation equipment and intelligent manufacturing system. From 2014 to 2019, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to parent company CAGR were about 119% and 83% respectively. The new ark platform, the new second-generation intelligent manufacturing system R2 fab, and semiconductor assembly, packaging and testing business are expected to become new growth points.
The photovoltaic industry is expected to increase CAGR by about 20% and 18% annually in the world and China in the next five years
In 2020, the scale of China's intelligent manufacturing equipment market was about 2 trillion, and the CAGR from 2016 to 2020 was about 18%. With the continuous implementation and promotion of the "made in China 2025" strategy and the continuous promotion of emerging technologies such as overlay Internet of things, cloud technology and artificial intelligence, China's intelligent equipment industry is expected to maintain rapid growth.
The downstream photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and the company's performance is expected to continue to grow. In 2020, China's annual new photovoltaic installed capacity was 48.2gw, and the CAGR from 2011 to 2020 was about 38%, higher than the global growth rate of 20PCT. According to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, it is expected that the annual installed capacity of the world and China will reach 330gw and 110gw in 2025, and the CAGR will be about 20% and 18% in the next five years. The upstream equipment market is expected to continue to grow.
Three core competitive advantages build a moat for photovoltaic business, and semiconductor business integration opens up growth space
Photovoltaic business: 1) master a number of core patented technologies and invest about 70% CAGR in R & D from 2015 to 2020; 2) The product has the advantages of high operation efficiency, high production capacity and low fragmentation rate, and its main performance indicators rank among the leading in China and the international advanced level; 3) It has a stable customer base in the field of photovoltaic cells. Its main customers are well-known photovoltaic manufacturers at home and abroad. There are deep barriers to customer resources, which provides a basis for product expansion; 4) Extending vertically in the photovoltaic industry chain, the company has obtained orders from photovoltaic silicon wafer customers in 2021.
Semiconductor business: from 2016 to 2020, the CAGR of China's semiconductor equipment market was about 30%, exceeding the global growth rate by 15pct; The localization rate of sealing and testing equipment is no more than 5%, and there is a wide space for import substitution. The company shares in ficontec, Germany, and quickly cuts into the field of semiconductor assembly and packaging testing. Its main customers are semiconductor and communication giants such as Cisco, Intel, IBM, dILAS and Huawei.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1 / 15 / 2 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 97% / 46% / 31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 0.7/1.2/155 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 62% / 32% from 2022 to 2023, corresponding to pe84 / 52 / 39x. As the leader of high-end automation equipment, the company covers for the first time and gives a "buy" rating.
Risk statement
1) The price of silicon material has risen sharply; 2) The automation demand of photovoltaic industry is less than expected
