Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696)
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From a fundamental point of view, the sales of Jimi double eleven increased by 90% year-on-year. Does the projection industry usher in a growth inflection point? In this regard, we will put forward three key questions and answer them.
What is the prosperity of 2021q3 intelligent projection industry?
Q3 overall industry prosperity has decreased. According to Lotu technology data, the sales growth rate of intelligent projection industry in the first three quarters of 2021 was 38%, lower than 47% of H1, and the growth rate of Q3 decreased. The sales growth of q1-3 is mainly contributed by relatively low-end LCD products. Intelligent projection is mainly divided into two technical routes: DLP and LCD. The former has high unit price and good display effect, and is used by mainstream enterprises such as Jimi and nuts. The latter has slightly poor display effect, and the unit price is generally less than 2000 yuan. However, due to the continuous shortage of DMD chip supply of Texas Instruments required by DLP route, the sales volume of DLP products in the first three quarters of 2021 was only + 19% year-on-year, so most of the projection sales in the first three quarters of this year were contributed by LCD products.
How about the sales of head DLP intelligent projection enterprises under low landscape?
The supply of DMD chips will be limited for some time, but the demand for core parts of head enterprises will be given priority. Reflected in the performance, the sales of Q3 head enterprises will reach a higher level this year. According to magic mirror data, the growth rate of online sales of Jimi in the first three quarters of 2021 was 43% (15 PCT higher than H1), the growth rate of nuts was – 11% (6 PCT higher than H1), and the growth rate of fengmi was 95% (6 PCT higher than H1). Therefore, it shows that the shortage of chips has little impact on the normal operation of the head enterprise, and the operating performance of Q3 of the head enterprise is better than H1.
What are the drivers of smart projection sales growth?
The sales growth of intelligent projection is mainly driven by sales volume, supplemented by price improvement. Under the background of strengthened marketing promotion and diversified product structure, according to Lotu technology data, the sales of 2021q3 intelligent projection increased by 36% year-on-year, of which the sales volume and unit price increased by 21% and 12% year-on-year. Therefore, the improvement of sales volume is the main driving factor.
Update on the view of Jimi: 1) even if the prosperity of the intelligent projection industry is not high, the sales growth of Jimi shows an upward trend against the trend, which is a rare target of consumption upgrading with stable and high growth under the background of consumption depression. 2) It is expected that Jimi will be able to maintain this position in the future and enjoy the dividends brought by the high-speed growth track. Jimi has strengthened user education through spokesperson promotion and offline store expansion this year. Its sales market share in DLP products has increased from 42% in 2021h1 to 48% in the first three quarters of 2021, occupying the minds of consumers in advance. 3) The results of product structure optimization have been realized. According to Taobao data, as of the end of November, the sales and sales of high-end models h3s and rspro2 launched from March to April this year accounted for 18% and 35% of all categories, playing the sound of high-end product structure.
Investment advice: Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) sales rose against the trend, the leader occupied the minds of consumers, and the product structure was optimized. We expect the company’s EPS to be 9.01, 13.22 and 17.63 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 63, 43 and 32 times of PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
