Recently, domestic wine enterprises that have always been quite low-key have made continuous announcements. After entering February, Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) kept releasing news that the enterprise’s control might change due to the restructuring of the controlling shareholder Guoan group. Earlier Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) even issued a risk warning announcement of “possible delisting”.
At the beginning of the new year, in the successive performance forecasts for 2021, some wine enterprises reported losses again, so that the domestic wine, which once regained confidence due to the recovery of performance in the first half of 2021, fell into the worry of “whether the development is in trouble” after entering 2022.
Either the decline of domestic wine production data in the second half of 2021 or the industry view that imported wine “returns to a strong position” has not submerged the development opportunities of domestic wine. As consumers’ consumption choices tend to be diversified and rational and no longer blindly pursue the import of grape wine products, local governments in some core wine producing areas have strengthened their support, The confidence of domestic wine is still.
from “optimistic” to “cautious”
“What is the value of the whole bottle of wine Baijiu“? On February 24, the reporter of Beijing News found in the store of a brand wine merchant in Jingdong that a brand of wine had become a gift. The customer service in the store replied to the reporter, “there is no relevant news about the price of the gift for the time being, but we also gave six bottles of wine products.”
Baijiu wine is purchased in the past for a long time, and also occurs in Shang Chao or in the liquor and tobacco industry.
In China’s wine Baijiu market, the status of wine is not as good as that of Baijiu. But insiders pointed out that even some liquor products are also regarded as gifts due to poor sales. Taking wine as a promotional product is part of commercial behavior, which does not mean that wine is “cold” again in the Chinese market. However, it can not be ignored that China’s wine market seems not so optimistic in the second half of the year after a slight recovery in the first half of 2021.
As a leader in the domestic wine industry, Zhangyu achieved an operating revenue of 1.134 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40.75%; St Weilong’s operating revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.15% Tonghua Grape Wine Co.Ltd(600365) in the first quarter, the operating revenue was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; The operating revenue of St China and Portugal in the first quarter was 511785 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 434.32%. In addition, Yiyuan liquor, Gansu Mogao Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600543) etc. also achieved positive growth in performance in the data released in the first quarterly report.
Such data performance makes many people who are pessimistic about domestic wine seem to see the “dawn”, and also makes many operators re-examine the value and status of domestic wine.
In addition, in the first half of 2021, the pressure from imported wine is decreasing. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the people’s Republic of China, in March 2021, a total of 29.12 million liters of wine were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 37.4%, and the amount was 780.51 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%; From January to March, the total import volume was 107.98 million liters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, and the amount was 283059 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%. In the view of many practitioners, the decline of imported wine in more than double digits undoubtedly releases the development space for domestic wine.
However, after entering 2022, the industry’s previous optimistic analysis of domestic wine has gradually turned into caution.
Some wine practitioners told the Beijing news that the decline of imported wine data in the customs data can not fully show the competitive relationship between domestic wine and imported wine. Combined with the data of the whole year of 2021, the decline of wine import data is shrinking, which also means that the view that imported wine is “releasing development space for domestic wine” cannot be based on.
The reporter of Beijing News inquired the data released by the General Administration of customs and found that in December 2021, the import volume of wine was 38.03 million liters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%; The amount was about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; The cumulative import volume of wine from January to December was 426.62 million liters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; The cumulative amount was about 11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. Compared with the data of the first quarter, the decline shrank, especially in the import volume.
Further analysis shows that the reason why wine imports still show a decline is largely due to the sharp decline in Australian wine imports. In fact, imports from other major wine producing countries such as France and Chile have increased.
More importantly, the output data of domestic wine in the first and second half of 2021 also rose and fell significantly.
According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of wine production in the first half of 2021, there is a general positive growth. In addition to a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% in April, it increased by 33.3% in March, 14.3% in May and 15.4% in June.
After July 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of wine production in each month has not increased positively. Among them, it fell 10% year-on-year in July, 19% year-on-year in August, 30% year-on-year in September, 54.1% year-on-year in October, 29.7% year-on-year in November and 14.9% year-on-year in December.
domestic wine listed companies “trouble” constantly
Listed wine companies are also in constant trouble. At present, Gansu Mogao Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600543) has issued the announcement of performance loss in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be about – 90 million yuan, a decrease of about 91.86 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of about 4939%.
All Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) shares held by Guoan group, the controlling shareholder of Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) are subject to judicial freezing or waiting freezing. Guoan group enters the reorganization procedure, which may lead to the change of Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) control Weilong Grape Wine Co.Ltd(603779) the judicial auction of the shares of the former controlling shareholder continued until February 2022.
Even Zhangyu, the leader of domestic wine, was cautious in analyzing the development trend in 2021, And pointed out “In 2021, the overall demand of the wine market is relatively weak, and the business situation of the wine industry is still relatively severe. At present, China’s wine consumers are small and scattered, family consumption is still in the initial stage, the wine market is seriously fragmented, and the loyal consumers who can buy continuously are very limited. In addition, with the rise of China’s e-commerce and the Internet generation, people consume wine With the changing landscape and habits, mobile terminal media has become an important channel for wine operators to communicate with consumers, and it is more difficult to lock in wine target consumers “.
Some industry experts told the Beijing news that the current problem facing the wine industry is the problem of drinking habits. China’s mainstream groups have not formed the habit of drinking wine, so wine has not been warm in China, and the occasional flash is relatively short.
policy support “ignite” hope
At present, the local governments of the main wine producing areas are also stepping up efforts to support the wine industry, which is also considered by the industry that the wine industry is expected to obtain opportunities for rapid development.
On February 8, the people’s Government of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region released the notice of the 14th five year plan for the high-quality development of the wine industry in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain in Ningxia and the long-term goal of 2035 on its official website. The eastern foot of Helan in Ningxia is one of the most “hot” wine producing areas in China.
In the above notice, we can see the development potential of China’s wine industry. For example, from 2015 to 2019, China’s per capita consumption of wine rose from 1.52 liters to 1.71 liters, an increase of 11.8%, becoming the fastest growing market of wine consumption in the world.
We can better see the determination and policy support of local governments to develop the wine industry. Ningxia plans to revise and improve the regulations on the protection of wine producing areas at the eastern foot of Helan in the autonomous region in due time, and formulate and introduce several policies to support the high-quality development of wine industry, such as talent introduction and training, land, finance, finance, insurance, taxation and so on. The total estimated investment is about 74 billion yuan.
According to the objectives put forward in the above notice, by 2025, Ningxia Helan East foothill production area will strive to add 508000 mu of wine grape planting base, reach 1 million mu, build more than 270 wineries, strive to achieve a comprehensive output value of 100 billion yuan, and double the brand value of “Helan East foothill wine”.
The strong support of local governments also makes the industry believe that domestic wine will usher in a new opportunity for development. Insiders pointed out that there are many large enterprises and big brands in the domestic wine industry and Baijiu industry. In addition to a few well-known brands such as Changyu and great wall, the vast majority of domestic wines are still small and medium-sized enterprises in the cultivation period. This also means that it is inevitable for the data to fluctuate during the market cultivation period. Baijiu wine industry is developing more and more attention to the concept of wine producing area. With the development of small scale boutique, the wine industry is embarking on a road of fine and localized development, which is totally different from liquor and yellow wine.
