With the increasing geopolitical risks caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global risk aversion has heated up, and the price of gold has been pushed higher. On February 24, spot gold hit US $197427/oz, the highest since January 2021.
In addition to spot gold, the quotation of physical gold also ushered in a wave of rise. On February 18, the physical gold quotation of mainstream brands in the Chinese market generally exceeded the 500 yuan / g mark, and by February 25, it had risen to 506 yuan / g.
With the rise of gold prices, gold recycling points are also “lively”. Red Star capital Bureau visited a recycling pawn shop located in the popular business district of Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The staff said that many more customers came to consult about gold recycling recently than in the past. According to media reports, some gold investors recently sold 11.2 kilograms of gold and received a total of more than 4.2 million yuanP align = “center” physical gold rarely rose by 10 yuan / g in two days
Shenzhen Shuibei market queuing up to buy gold
On February 27, Hongxing capital Bureau visited the internal branch stores in Chengdu.
Zhou Liufu’s clerk told the Red Star capital bureau that since the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold has been rising, “since mid February, the price of gold has increased by more than ten yuan. On February 17 and 18, the price of gold has increased by 10 yuan / G, which is very rare. It is generally a change of 1 yuan or 2 yuan.”
In addition, the clerk of Chow Tai Fook told the Red Star capital Bureau: “since the Spring Festival in 2022, the price of gold has been rising, up about 24 yuan / gram. There have been a lot of news in Russia and Ukraine in the past two weeks, and our daily gold price changes greatly.”
“The price of gold in the store is changing every day. It rose significantly last week, but it has fallen a little in the past two days,” the clerk said Take Chow Tai Fook as an example. According to the data of the industry website jintou.com, the physical gold price of Chow Tai Fook broke through the 500 yuan / g mark on February 18, rose to 506 yuan / G on February 25, and fell below 500 yuan / G on February 26.
The Red Star capital Bureau found in its visit on the 27th that the full gold price today was 499 yuan / g, which was the same as the price of the previous day. The full price quoted by Chow Tai Fook today is also 499 yuan / g. in addition, the full price quoted by gold stores such as Liufu jewelry, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chow Sang Sang and so on is also the same as that of Chow Tai Fook today.
The clerk of zhouliufu said that the rise in gold price had little impact on the sales of heavy and small gold jewelry in the store, but had a greater impact on major goods in the store. “Small gold ornaments are generally about 4 grams. If the price of gold rises by more than 10 yuan per gram, it will have little impact. However, if there is at most 80 grams of heavy goods, the price will be nearly 1000 yuan.”
However, the above salesmen said that due to the epidemic situation and the end of the peak period of the Spring Festival, the recent sales performance was average.
According to the report of the securities times, recently, there was an endless stream of people in Shenzhen Shuibei international jewelry trading center, the largest jewelry trading market in China, and some gold shops reproduce the grand occasion of customers queuing up to pay the bill p align = “center” gold recovery point “hot”
someone sold 11.2kg gold and paid back 4.2 million
Compared with gold brand stores, gold recycling points are much “lively”. According to the Guangzhou Daily, on February 23, due to the rising price of gold, the flow of people in gold stores increased by 30% than usual, mainly investors came to sell gold.
On February 27, the Red Star capital Bureau visited a recycling pawn shop located in the popular business district of Chengdu. The staff said that recently, many more customers came to consult about gold recycling than in the past according to the staff: “last week, the gold recovery price rose to the highest 390 yuan / g, and fell back a little in the past two days. The recovery price of gram weight is about 340 yuan / g, and that of gram weight is 350360 yuan / g.”
The person in charge of a gold recovery point in Shanghai also told the Red Star capital Bureau: “on the first day of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the largest number of customers came to consult about gold recovery, but most customers are still waiting. After the recent fall in gold prices, the number of customers who came to recover has been almost the same as in the past.”
China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) recycling platform shows that the price of recycled gold has shown an upward trend since February. On February 24, the price of recovered gold reached a peak, with a maximum of 402.24 yuan / g and a minimum of 387.02 yuan / g. the price of recovered gold showed a downward trend from 25 to 26.
According to the Guangzhou Daily, manager Dai of a gold sales business department said: “recently, in terms of weight, there are more gold recoveries. What impresses me is that a gold investor took 11.2kg to the gold recovery point of our mall a few days ago and sold it, with a total payment of more than 4.2 million yuan!”P align = “center” spot gold hit a new high since 2021
With the increasing geopolitical risks caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global risk aversion has heated up, and the price of gold has been pushed higher.
On February 21, the situation in Russia and Ukraine escalated, and Ukrainian Donetsk civilian armed forces declared a state of emergency in Donetsk. That night, the international gold price of spot gold exceeded a new high of US $1900 / ounce. In the morning trading on February 22, the spot gold price hit the highest of US $1914 / ounce, a new high in more than eight months.
On the morning of February 24, the border conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, and the whole territory of Ukraine will enter a wartime state. Affected by this, the price of gold soared again. Spot gold hit the highest of 197427 U.S. dollars / ounce on the same day, a new high since January 2021. The price of US $197427/oz has increased by 9.6% compared with the closing price of US $180163/oz on January 3, 2022.
However, after reaching a new high, the price of gold immediately “dived from a high platform”. Spot gold closed at US $190390/oz on February 24, down US $5.04 or 0.26%, reaching US $188015/oz as low as US $188015.
With both sides showing a willingness to negotiate, the spot gold price has also adjusted continuously. So far, the spot gold price is US $188933/oz, down 0.78% from the previous trading day.
Industry insiders believe that in addition to the impact of the international situation, crude oil prices continue to rise, leading commodity prices to ignite stagflation expectations. Concerns about inflation expectations are another catalyst for the rise of spot goldP align = “center” how can I get there in the future
expert: strong in the short term and under pressure in the long term
On February 24, affected by the intensification of the border conflict between Russia and Ukraine on that day, the A-share gold concept sector rose against the trend against the backdrop of the sharp decline of the market.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\sz) and other stocks rose by more than 6%.
However, on February 25, the international gold price plunged, and the A-share gold sector made a sharp correction. Only 13 stocks continued the upward trend, and the other stocks in the gold concept sector showed a downward trend. Among them, the shares of Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) and Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) fell by more than 3%.
How the gold price will go in the future is also a matter of great concern to investors.
Zhou Cong, general manager of West China futures investment consulting department, told the Red Star capital Bureau: “after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gold soared in the short term, indicating that the market hedge funds are chasing gold. This sentiment can be seen from the decline of major stock markets around the world.”
\u3000\u3000 “But at the same time, we also see that the US dollar index has also soared, indicating that hedge funds are also buying US dollars at the same time, which also meets the US intention to hope that assets will return to the United States from Europe. considering that Russia is a major oil exporter and Ukraine is also a European grain warehouse, crude oil and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have risen. This will make the United States face greater inflationary pressure , it may force the fed to take more decisive measures to raise interest rates, which will further boost the dollar, which is a negative factor for gold therefore, in the short term, gold may still be strong driven by risk aversion, but in the long run, the rise of the US dollar will put great pressure on gold. ” Zhou Cong said.
Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) said that in the future, the price trend of precious metals mainly focuses on two aspects: first, the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine will continue to dominate the price of precious metals in the near future. If the situation eases or cools down and returns to the negotiation level again, there will be a correction of precious metals. In the medium and long term, under the expectation that the U.S. economic growth is expected to slow down and the proportion of U.S. debt / GDP continues to rise, precious metals are expected to still perform strongly. If the situation in Russia and Ukraine eases, it may provide a better opportunity for more orders in the medium and long-term layout of precious metals.
Western strategy Yi Bin believes that due to the influence of risk aversion, gold prices will rise in the short term. In terms of time dimension, it is more the rise of asset prices in the brewing stage before and after the conflict, and then as the situation becomes clear, the prices of major categories of assets will return to the original trend.
