Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304)
Business analysis
Pay attention to the effectiveness of reform, and the Spring Festival has a good start with strong certainty. 1) From a fundamental point of view, the company's internal and external reforms are carried out in parallel, and the results are accelerated. The product side company promotes the "Yanghe + Shuanggou" dual brand strategy. After upgrading, the development potential of dream 6 + and crystal dream is good. As mature products, sea and sky will steadily promote the introduction and volume of Huanxin. 2) According to the feedback from the channel side, the current overall inventory is benign, about 1.5 months, and the overall price is also stable: the price of dream 6 + is about 600 yuan, the price of crystal dream is about 420 yuan, and the price of the new version of tianzhilan is about 310 yuan. At the beginning of December, the company began to make payments in the coming year. Under the background of rich channel profits, the dealers were more enthusiastic. By the end of the third quarter, the high increase in advance collection had also made a good start. We believe that the annual revenue growth rate of the company in 22 years is expected to exceed 20%, and the growth trend of the Spring Festival is better.
From the outside to the inside, the new management has a strong driving force for reform. After the new chairman performed his duties, he actively promoted the company's high-quality development and reform. 1) In terms of internal incentives, the company implemented "broadband salary and profit sharing" to boost the enthusiasm of the team, and implemented the employee stock ownership plan to further bind the interests of business backbone and the company. We believe that with the rationalization of the company's internal management structure and the rejuvenation of the marketing backbone, the overall effectiveness of the team will continue to be released. 2) On the external channel side, it emphasizes the continuous construction of a new manufacturer relationship of "one supplier is the main business and multiple suppliers are entitled", focuses on the construction of excellent suppliers, improves the thrust of dealers through rich channel profits, and optimizes the market order. We believe that the optimization of external channels is compatible with the upgrading of internal products, and promote the realization of reform dividends in parallel.
At present, the company has both growth and valuation cost performance. 1) At the expectation level, the external benefit from the consumption upgrading dividend is to broaden the price band, and the dream 6 + and crystal dream are expected to continue in large quantities in the next year and next. Combined with Haitian Huanxin and Shuanggou distribution, we believe that the company has a broad market inside and outside the province, the performance will accelerate month on month in the next year and the next, and has better growth in the industry. 2) The market is worried about whether the future volume will affect the channel profits. We believe that the current management goal is still to consolidate the channel and use the channel potential to drive the natural volume of various products at the cost of damaging the channel interests. 3) The current share price corresponds to a 22-year PE of 28x. The valuation has been cost-effective, and the fundamentals continue to accelerate the improvement. It is recommended to focus on it.
Investment advice
Combined with the gradual release of the current reform results, we believe that the company's performance is expected to accelerate in the next year. It is estimated that the year-on-year revenue of 21-23 will be + 16% / + 22% / + 20%, the year-on-year net profit attributable to the parent company will be - 1% / + 29% / + 24%, the EPS will be 4.93/6.39/7.93 yuan, and the PE will be 36 / 28 / 22x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Repeated epidemic risk, product upgrading less than expected risk, macroeconomic risk and regional competition risk.
