Core conclusions: ① historical data show that the impact of regional conflict on the stock market is relatively short. With reference to 14 years, the impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the stock market may gradually disappear. ② The market fell at the beginning of the year due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the disturbance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States. The disturbance dissipated, and the spring market with steady growth was just at that time. ③ The market style is moving from value led to growth led, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the market is expected to gradually pass. Looking back on the performance of global large categories of assets during regional conflicts in history, the short-term impact of regional conflicts on large categories of assets is more obvious, but the actual impact is limited when it is prolonged. At present, the Russian Ukrainian war is still in progress, but the turn for the better has come. Referring to the 14-year conflict in Ukraine, in the first stage of the conflict, risky assets fell and safe haven assets rose. The same safe haven sentiment was also reflected in the major categories of assets in the Russian Ukrainian conflict. In the future, if the regional conflict turns from war friction in the first stage to peace negotiation in the second stage, the risk appetite of equity assets will be repaired by referring to the performance of major assets in the second stage of the 14-year conflict. On February 25, the stock markets of Russia and the United States began to rise, and the gold and crude oil in commodities began to fall.
The spring market is just at that time, from value to growth. This year’s spring market has not appeared yet. We believe that the disturbance behind it mainly comes from overseas: first, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused emotional disturbance to a shares; Second, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to heat up at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. We believe that the above two overseas variables have been basically priced in, and the market will eventually return to its own logic. The spring Market under the steady growth policy is still worth looking forward to. In terms of style, in the three rounds of steady growth spring market at the beginning of 2012, the end of 2014 – the beginning of 2015 and the beginning of 2019, the deductive performance of market style is value first and then growth, and the signal of value switching to growth comes from policy and performance: first, in terms of policy, new infrastructure is an important part of steady growth policy, including low-carbon economy and digital economy; The second is the disclosure of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report. Driven by the steady growth policy, we expect relevant sectors to benefit from it. March April is the intensive period for the disclosure of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report of a shares. If the performance of relevant listed companies is verified, it is expected to boost the market risk appetite.
Coping strategies: after value, see growth. Since late November last year, we have put the value sector represented by financial real estate in the first echelon. In this round of major financial market, the excess return of the real estate index relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 15 percentage points, and the excess return of the bank index is 11 percentage points. The excess return of the two has been more obvious in history, but the current valuation is still low. We believe that the most important thing in big finance is securities companies: the net profit of securities companies in 2019 and 2020 was 75% and 36% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding annual maximum increase of securities company index was 56% and 55%, while the cumulative net profit of securities companies in the first three quarters of 21 years was 24% year-on-year, and the Shenwan securities company index fell by 4.2% in 21 years. The growth style will face differentiation in the future. In terms of low-carbon economy, we look for growth sub fields that may have opportunities in the future through two clues: one is to look for sub fields with excellent performance in combination with industry support policies; the other is to look for policy and market consensus points in the context of promoting stable growth of new infrastructure. In a comprehensive view, wind power, photovoltaic and UHV deserve attention. Among them, the construction of computing infrastructure such as cloud computing and data center is the direction of policy focus.
Risk tip: inflation continues to rise sharply, and macro policies outside China are tightened
