Civil aviation passenger transport recovered well in the first half of the Spring Festival transportation, and gradually stabilized in the second half, mainly because epidemic control measures such as the Winter Olympic Games and the two sessions may slow down the speed of returning to work and school. Overall, although the total passenger flow has improved year-on-year, it still has a certain decline compared with the same period in 19 years. According to the statistics of the Ministry of transport, the passenger volume of railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation in China has reached 1.058 billion, a decrease of 64.50% over the same period of the lunar calendar in 2019 and an increase of 21.50% over the same period of the lunar calendar in 2021. In terms of total passenger flow, the passenger flow before the festival is relatively concentrated and the travel after the festival is relatively stable.
In the 20 days before the Spring Festival transportation, the cumulative passenger volume of civil aviation was 16.65 million (832500 passengers per day), an increase of 55.14% year-on-year, but still decreased by 53.07% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival transportation in 19 years; During the seven-day holiday of the Spring Festival, the cumulative passenger volume of civil aviation was 5.8 million (828600 passengers per day), an increase of 34.60% year-on-year and a decrease of 61.85% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival transportation in 19 years. Although the recovery trend before the festival is good, the recovery of civil aviation passenger traffic after the festival is relatively stable.
During the period from the Spring Festival holiday to the end of the Spring Festival transportation, the cumulative passenger volume of civil aviation was 20.5 million person times (average daily passenger volume was 1.139 million person times), a year-on-year decrease of 9.50%, 34.93% lower than the same period of the Spring Festival transportation in 19. The main reason is that the "restrictions on local festivals of Spring Festival transportation" in the second half of last year are gradually relaxed. This year, affected by the Winter Olympic Games and the two sessions, the epidemic situation in some areas is repeated, and the epidemic situation policy control is relatively strict, The speed of returning to work and school after the festival slows down, and tourists' vacation travel is restricted.
Highway and railway are still the mainstream passenger transport options, and their weight has increased; Civil aviation travel shows a certain recovery trend, which is expected to pick up significantly in late March. Among the four passenger transport modes of railway, highway, waterway and civil aviation, highway and railway have become the mainstream passenger transport modes. By the end of the Spring Festival transportation, the passenger transport volume accounts for 71.15% / 23.55% of the total passenger transport volume respectively, an increase of 9.26/1.55 percentage points compared with the same period of the lunar calendar in 2021; The weight of waterway and civil aviation decreased, and the passenger volume accounted for 1.56% / 3.74% of the total passenger volume respectively, a decrease of 0.04/0.47 percentage points compared with the same period of the lunar calendar in 2021. Civil aviation shows a certain recovery trend, with a decline of 45.86% compared with the same period of the lunar calendar in 2019. We calculate that China's total passenger volume has recovered to 61.5% in the same period of 19 years. According to our analysis, with the end of the two sessions in March, the passenger flow will pick up significantly.
The deterioration of Russian Ukrainian relations and geopolitical tensions promote the further rise of oil prices in the short term. Although the short-term rise in oil prices has put pressure on the operation of airlines, in the long run, airlines may resume the collection of fuel surcharges, or transfer most of the incremental costs. The price of Brent crude oil has risen by 35.82% since its low in early December of 21 (US $68.87 / barrel) to US $93.54 per barrel on February 24. We estimate that the average fuel price of AVIC in the first two months has increased by about 43.2% compared with the same period of 19 years, which puts pressure on the operation of AVIC in the short term. However, at the end of January, Air China Limited(601111) , China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) companies successively issued notices to resume the collection of fuel surcharges (for tickets sold since February 5, adult passengers (10 yuan fuel surcharges per person on routes less than 800 kilometers, 20 yuan for routes more than 800 kilometers).
The epidemic situation in overseas countries has gradually improved, and the general trend of China's going out administrative policy deregulation remains unchanged. As of February 17, the daily average number of new cases in the United States continued to decline, with the daily number of new cases down 43.8% month on month. The epidemic situation in Europe is still improving, the trend of the epidemic situation in major countries is relatively differentiated, and the performance of Britain, France and Germany is relatively good. The number of new cases per day decreased by 39.1% / 43.2% / 7.7% month on month; The epidemic trend in Southeast Asia is also more differentiated. China's overseas administrative policies tend to be loose, but the regional differentiation is significant, and countries such as Britain, America and Europe are relatively loose; Asian countries, Japan and South Korea are relatively strict, and Thailand is becoming loose.
The impact of the epidemic prevention and control policy on the passenger transport industry can be gradually weakened in the short and medium term; In the long run, the epidemic will not change the driving force of demand growth, the industry prospect is optimistic, and we will actively pay attention to the investment opportunities of the sector. On the one hand, we have observed the gradual loosening of China's overseas administrative policies; On the other hand, China has more and more experience in dealing with the epidemic, and the speed of controlling the epidemic is fast. Considering that China has strengthened the comprehensive popularization of vaccination, continued to strengthen the epidemic prevention barrier, and further promoted the research and development of covid-19 drugs, in the short and medium term, we expect that China's travel consumption demand will be greatly increased after the two sessions, the industry demand is expected to improve quarter by quarter, and the seating rate and price are expected to continue to be repaired. In the long run, the demand after the epidemic is expected to continue to grow, and the cumulative benefits of tightening industry supply and liberalizing ticket prices are expected to be released, promoting the continuous improvement of the performance of airlines. The recent sector adjustment basically reflects the negative impact of rising oil prices and the epidemic in Hong Kong, China. We pay attention to the investment opportunities in the aviation sector and recommend Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips: exchange rate, oil price fluctuation, epidemic uncertainty, etc.
