Special topic of this week: hot sales of gold jewelry
Since 2022, gold jewelry has maintained a hot sales trend. According to the disclosure of the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021 was 440823 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, of which gold, silver and jewelry increased by 29.8% year-on-year, far higher than that of other categories in grade 2. Since 2022, gold jewelry has continued its hot sales trend. According to the data of metals focus, the sales of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) jewelry from early January to early February are basically flat under the high base in the same period of 2021, There is a strong demand for gold jewelry. During the Spring Festival holiday, according to the data of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the national gold consumption demand was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 13%, which was mainly driven by Holiday factors. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, metals focus predicts that China's annual gold jewelry market demand is expected to achieve single digit growth year-on-year.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has fluctuated upward. According to our tracking, under the market expectation of tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the price of gold at the beginning of 2022 was slightly lower than that at the end of 2021. Later, with the further outbreak of the global epidemic, the stimulation of the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine and the deterioration of us inflation, the price of gold continued to rise.
Ancient gold jewelry is the focus of consumers in the hot market environment. Ancient gold jewelry refers to the gold jewelry made by the ancient gold casting process of the national intangible cultural heritage. This process originally came from the "palace manufacturing office" that made gold ware for the royal nobility, including filigree, chiseling, cuddling, hammering, gold repair, etc. the process is more complex than ordinary gold jewelry and has high requirements for the unskilled craftsmanship. We believe that the reasons for the hot sales of ancient gold include: 1) ancient gold jewelry is made by hand, with clear and natural lines. At the same time, the jewelry has matte texture, which is more attractive than ordinary gold jewelry as a whole; 2) Ancient gold jewelry should follow the trend of "national tide" and have a high degree of harmony with consumers' nostalgia. In terms of pricing, ancient gold jewelry is often made of compact materials and complex processes, so the processing cost of products is higher than that of ordinary gold jewelry. Taking rings as an example, according to the data of tmall flagship store, the processing cost of ancient gold rings is about 2-3 times that of ordinary gold jewelry.
This week's view
The overall retail performance of brand clothing was good in January and the growth rate fluctuated in February. We judge that it is due to the advance of consumption peak in spring, resulting in different base numbers. In the fashion clothing sector, we recommend [ Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ], which corresponds to 19 times of PE in 22 years.
Winter Olympics waste heat boosts the performance of the woven end of sports shoes and clothing. 1) In the short term, we estimate that the flow of Li Ning / Anta / FILA brands increased rapidly in January and fluctuated due to the base in February. 2) In the medium and long term, the rise of sub sectors such as track growth + snow sports is expected to bring investment opportunities. According to the snow sports development plan, the scale of snow sports industry is expected to be 1 trillion yuan / drive 300 million people to participate in snow sports in 2025. We are firmly optimistic about high growth sports tracks in the medium and long term, and recommend [Li Ning, Anta sports, Tebu international and Shenzhou International], corresponding to 35 / 28 / 25 / 27 times of PE in 22 years, paying attention to Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , corresponding to 28 times of PE in 22 years.
At the beginning of the year of the tiger, the optimization of product structure, the stimulation of supplier marketing and promotion, the strong demand for festivals and the increase of investment risk avoidance demand, and the hot sales momentum of gold jewelry represented by gufajin continued in 2021. In the jewelry sector, we recommend [ Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ], corresponding to 12 times of PE in 22 years.
Risk tips
The impact time and scope of the new epidemic exceeded expectations and adversely affected the company's business.
The fluctuation of orders from downstream customers affects the operating revenue.
Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
Cotton price fluctuation risk.
Foreign exchange fluctuation risk.
